Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SEA is 6-0 (+6.25 units) at HOME vs Oakland with Logan Gilbert in L4 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-170 vs OAK)
Trend: AZ is solid (13-6, +6.64 units) in DAY games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-192 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 81-94 (-48.77 units, ROI: -27.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-148 at COL)
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-348 (51.3%) for +28.33 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+124 vs LAD), TORONTO (-155 vs MIA), MINNESOTA (-166 vs BAL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 UNITS and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-250 vs KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-118 at BOS), NY METS (-125 at MIL), CINCINNATI (-115 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 UNITS and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-250 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-185 vs PIT), MIAMI (+130 at TOR), ATLANTA (-250 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-192 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
1. Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 132-75, but for -35.60 units and an ROI of -17.2%.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-250 vs KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle finalized at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/28, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 107-41 for +1.38 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-218 vs CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 78-47 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -28.22 units, a ROI of -22.6%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-250 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 360-439 record, for -21.56 units (ROI -2.7%). This is well below standards historically, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 vs NYM), SAN DIEGO (+160 at AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (+124 vs TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 319-338 record, for +11.62 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 vs NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (+124 vs TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 182-230 for -51.19 units (-12.4% ROI). The three-game teams are 86-99 for -13.62 units (-7.4% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+136 vs PHI), FADE TEXAS (-148 at LAA), FADE HOUSTON (+140 at CLE), FADE BALTIMORE (+124 at MIN), FADE PITTSBURGH (+154 at NYY)
3-games – FADE MIAMI (+130 at TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 190 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 9/28 and these teams are 112-78 for +20.39 units (10.7% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 vs TEX), MINNESOTA (-148 vs BAL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-348 (51.3%) for +28.33 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+124 vs LAD), TORONTO (-155 vs MIA), MINNESOTA (-166 vs BAL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1690-1594 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -217.00 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+160 at NYY), BALTIMORE (+140 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-148 at COL), TEXAS (-170 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1619-2067 (43.9%) for -181.32 units and a R.O.I. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-122 at CHC), NY METS (-125 at MIL), KANSAS CITY (+205 at ATL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3402-2997 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -475.75 units and a R.O.I. of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-122 vs STL), WASHINGTON (+142 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+105 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (+142 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-175 vs OAK)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 964-834 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.45 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-155 vs MIA), ARIZONA (-192 vs SD), DETROIT (-218 vs CWS)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 287-241 (54.4%) for +39.93 units and a R.O.I. of 7.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-166 vs BAL), COLORADO (+124 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 185-184 run (+28.94 units, ROI: 7.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-122 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+142 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 81-94 (-48.77 units, ROI: -27.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-148 at COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO (+33 at ARI)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+32 vs WAS), TAMPA BAY (+30 at BOS), TEXAS (+17 at LAA), TORONTO (+15 vs. MIA)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BOS OVER 8 (+.59)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.
(955) NEW YORK-NL (87-72) at (956) MILWAUKEE (93-68)
Trend: Colin Rea has been good in the -120 to +135 line range (20-7, +14.53 units) in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+105 vs NYM)
(957) SAN DIEGO (93-68) at (958) ARIZONA (88-73)
Trend: AZ is solid (13-6, +6.64 units) in DAY games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-192 vs SD)
(961) CINCINNATI (76-85) at (962) CHICAGO-NL (83-78)
Trend: Hunter Greene is 3-12 (-8.73 units) on the ROAD in divisional games
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-122 at CHC)
(965) TEXAS (77-84) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (63-98)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 24-7 (+17.45 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-170 at LAA)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 23-7 (+15.88 units) in L30 DAY game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-170 at LAA)
(967) OAKLAND (69-92) at (968) SEATTLE (84-77)
Trend: SEA is 6-0 (+6.25 units) at HOME vs Oakland with Logan Gilbert in L4 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-170 vs OAK)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday 10/1)
