Today’s MLB Betting Trend
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
Top MLB Resources:
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems off of this report for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
(955) PHILADELPHIA (26-12) at (956) MIAMI (10-29)
Trend: Backing better bullpen favorites of -190 or higher and have a winning percentage >=19% than the opponent (ROI of 4.4% last year)
Trend: MIA has been awful vs. LH starters (1-14, -14.57 units)
Systems Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 at MIA)
(967) MINNESOTA (22-15) at (968) TORONTO (17-20)
Trend: DK Betting Split #2: Majority bets within 51-59% had a positive ROI last year (MIN has 56% of bets)
Trend: MIN is 9-4 (+3.74 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Joe Ryan in the last three seasons
Trend: Home teams who scored >= 5 runs in the previous game have not been good in follow-up games (ROI of -7%)
Systems Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-102 at TOR)
(973) OAKLAND (18-21) at (974) SEATTLE (20-18)
Trend: OAK’s Paul Blackburn is 1-6 (-5.75 units) vs. Seattle in the last four seasons
Trend: OAK has typically had letdown games after series vs. Texas: 11-18 (37.9%) -8.23 units, ROI: -28.4% in follow-up game
Systems Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-155 vs OAK)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and a ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA (-102 at TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and a ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs AZ), WASHINGTON (+170 at BOS), TEXAS (-185 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CHC-PIT, MIN-TOR, PHI-MIA, CLE-CWS, LAD-SD
PLAY UNDER in: OAK-SEA, CIN-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024.
– Majority handle bettors in MAY were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, TEXAS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, TEXAS
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 23-10 for +2.61 units and a ROI of 7.9%. However, the ROI dropped 30% over the past 30 days.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-205 vs WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 34-15 for -3.11 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 at MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced an 89-99 record for +3.37 units (ROI 1.8%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+124 vs ATL), DETROIT (+110 vs HOU), MINNESOTA (-102 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-39 for -1.05 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 15-21 for -8.06 units. The three-game teams are 21-24 for -1.78 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 7-11 for -5.28 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ATLANTA (-148 at NYM), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs. CLE)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (+105 at BAL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 53-37 for +2.70 units through Thursday 5/9 after a great 29-25, +8.90 units stretch over the last three plus weeks.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1492-1396 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -174.44 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-185 at COL), OAKLAND (+130 at SEA), MINNESOTA (-102 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (-125 at LAA), COLORADO (+154 vs TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1362-1775 (43.4%) for -179.13 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-118 at CWS), ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3013-2634 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -395.00 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, LA ANGELS, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, COLORADO, MILWAUKEE
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-728 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.55 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+120 vs NYY)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 433-364 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.86 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+105 vs KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 23-69 skid (-30.00 units, ROI -32.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+130 at SF)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 56-119 (-47.98 units, ROI: -27.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+130 at SF)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 76-62 outright (+5.67 units, ROI: 4.1%).
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+130 at SF), PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 144-121 run (+47.28 units, ROI: 17.8%).
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+130 at SF), PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 111-107 (+20.95 units, ROI: 9.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+130 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 68-74 (-35.79 units, ROI: -25.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-185 at SD), FADE ARIZONA (+114 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +170 (+20 diff), WASHINGTON +170 (+28 diff), COLORADO +154 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -122 (+21 diff), NY YANKEES -125 (+28 diff), CLEVELAND -118 (+27 diff), BALTIMORE -125 (+31 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SD OVER 7.5 (+1.4), TEX-COL OVER 9.5 (+1.2), AZ-BAL OVER 9 (+1.1), CLE-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.0), MIN-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.7), PHI-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.5), HOU-DET OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-SEA UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(953) ATLANTA (22-12) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (18-18)
Trend: NYM more Under at home (7-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (26-12) at (956) MIAMI (10-29)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (1-14, -14.57 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+160 vs PHI)
(957) ST LOUIS (15-22) at (958) MILWAUKEE (22-15)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (10-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (26-13) at (960) SAN DIEGO (20-20)
Trend: LAD good at night (18-6, +4.19 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at SD)
(961) CINCINNATI (16-21) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (17-22)
Trend: SF trending Under at home (4-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(963) HOUSTON (13-24) at (964) DETROIT (19-18)
Trend: HOU bad v.s RH starters (8-16, -12.77 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-148 at DET)
(965) NEW YORK-AL (25-14) at (966) TAMPA BAY (19-19)
Trend: NYY more Under at night (8-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(969) CLEVELAND (24-14) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (10-28)
Trend: CLE good vs LH starters (7-1, +6.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-118 at CWS)
(971) KANSAS CITY (23-16) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (14-24)
Trend: LAA has been bad at home (4-12, -7.95 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-102 vs KC)
(973) OAKLAND (18-21) at (974) SEATTLE (20-18)
Trend: SEA trending Under vs. divisional teams (1-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(975) ARIZONA (18-20) at (976) BALTIMORE (24-12)
Trend: BAL trending Over vs. LH starters (10-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(979) TEXAS (22-17) at (980) COLORADO (9-28)
Trend: COL bad at night (5-17, -9.33 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+160 vs TEX)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) ATLANTA (22-12) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (18-18)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 1-5 (-4.15 units) in the last six starts vs. Atlanta
System Match: FADE NY METS (+124 vs ATL)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (26-12) at (956) MIAMI (10-29)
Trend: PHI is 3-8 (-11.68 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 at MIA)
(957) ST LOUIS (15-22) at (958) MILWAUKEE (22-15)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 8-20 (-10.35 units) on the road at night as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+100 at MIL)
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (26-13) at (960) SAN DIEGO (20-20)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 30-4 (+19.55 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at SD)
(961) CINCINNATI (16-21) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (17-22)
Trend: CIN was 5-0 (+6.70 units) as a large underdog of +130 or more by starter Andrew Abbott last season
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+130 at SF)
Trend: SF is 14-2 (+9.70 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons (including 11-0 at HOME)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (*if they fall into this line range, -155 currently*)
(965) NEW YORK-AL (25-14) at (966) TAMPA BAY (19-19)
Trend: NYY is 6-11 (-5.93 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-125 at TB)
Trend: TB was 2-9 (-7.57 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley last season
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+105 vs NYY)
(967) MINNESOTA (22-15) at (968) TORONTO (17-20)
Trend: MIN is 9-4 (+3.74 units) vs AL East teams with starter Joe Ryan in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-102 at TOR)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 12-15 (-10.78 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-118 vs MIN)
(973) OAKLAND (18-21) at (974) SEATTLE (20-18)
Trend: Paul Blackburn is 1-6 (-5.75 units) vs Seattle in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at SEA)
Trend: OAK is 7-15 (-6.75 units) vs teams with a winning percentage between 45-55% with starter Paul Blackburn in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at SEA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
OAKLAND
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 11-18 (37.9%) -8.23 units, ROI: -28.4%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 5/10 at Seattle
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at SEA)
