Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
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These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
(901) CHICAGO CUBS (23-16) at (902) PITTSBURGH (17-22)
Trend: Better bullpen underdog teams (or pick ’ems) are solid bets (up 72.72 units last season)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-4 (+8.08 units) against teams with a <=45% win pct
Systems Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at PIT)
(903) ATLANTA (23-12) at (904) NY METS (18-19)
Trend: ATL is 12-2 in the last 14 road starts by Max Fried (+8.83 units)
Trend: ATL underpriced favorite according to MLB Strength Ratings (15 points difference)
Systems Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 at NYM)
(919) CLEVELAND (24-15) at (920) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (11-28)
Trend: CLE is 11-3 (+8.08 units) in the last 14 road Divisional games with starter Triston McKenzie
Trend: Worse bullpen teams (like CWS) continue to struggle in extending winning streaks (-2.78 units this season for three-game winning streak teams)
Systems Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-166 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): TORONTO (-155 vs MIN), DETROIT (-130 vs HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-170 vs. AZ), BOSTON (-166 vs. WSH), TEXAS (-162 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIN-TOR, PHI-MIA, NYY-TB, CIN-SF
PLAY UNDER in: CHC-PIT, ATL-NYM, HOU-DET, STL-MIL
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, TEXAS
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 23-11 for +0.43 units and an ROI of 1.3%. However, the ROI dropped 36% over the past 31 days.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE (-218 vs OAK)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 90-102 record for +1.37 units (ROI 0.7%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at PIT), NY METS (+130 vs. ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 vs. CIN), MINNESOTA (+130 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 31-39 for +0.95 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 17-21 for -6.06 units. The three-game teams are 21-25 for -2.78 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 7-12 for -6.28 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN DIEGO (+124 vs. LAD), FADE HOUSTON (+110 at DET), FADE COLORADO (+136 vs. TEX)
3-games – FADE ATLANTA (-155 at NYM), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 53-38 for +0.90 units through Friday 5/10 after a great 29-26, +7.10 units stretch over the last three plus weeks.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+130 at TOR), PLAY KANSAS CITY (-155 at LAA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 46 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/8 and these teams are 28-19 for +3.93 units.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-166 vs WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1495-1398 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -173.76 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-175 vs STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1363-1777 (43.4%) for -180.03 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ARIZONA, ST LOUIS, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, LA DODGERS, OAKLAND
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3016-2637 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.58 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. CLE), MILWAUKEE (-175 vs. STL), SEATTLE (-218 vs. OAK)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-729 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +23.55 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+130 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (+124 vs. LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 433-365 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.86 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +114 (+19 diff), OAKLAND +180 (+20 diff), WASHINGTON +140 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -155 (+15 diff), LA DODGERS -148 (+21 diff), NY YANKEES -122 (+26 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-PIT OVER 7 (+1.2), ATL-NYM OVER 7 (+1.2), HOU-DET OVER 7 (+0.9), TEX-COL OVER 10 (+0.8), PHI-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIN-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.6), NYY-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-SEA UNDER 8 (-0.8)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (23-16) at (902) PITTSBURGH (17-22)
Trend: CHC good vs. RH starters (21-12, +10.59 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at PIT)
(903) ATLANTA (23-12) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (18-19)
Trend: NYM more Under at home (7-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(905) PHILADELPHIA (27-12) at (906) MIAMI (10-30)
Trend: MIA not good in divisional play so far (1-10, -9.66 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs PHI)
(907) ST LOUIS (15-23) at (908) MILWAUKEE (23-15)
Trend: MIL has been good vs. RH starters (20-12, +8.89 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-175 vs STL)
(909) CINCINNATI (17-21) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (17-23)
Trend: SF trending Under at home (4-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (26-14) at (912) SAN DIEGO (21-20)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (16-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(913) MINNESOTA (23-15) at (914) TORONTO (17-21)
Trend: TOR more Under at home (5-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (26-14) at (916) TAMPA BAY (19-20)
Trend: NYY more Under at night (8-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(917) HOUSTON (14-24) at (918) DETROIT (19-19)
Trend: HOU not great bet on the road (5-12, -10.14 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+110 at DET)
(921) KANSAS CITY (24-16) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (14-25)
Trend: LAA has been bad at home (4-13, -8.95 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+130 vs KC)
(923) OAKLAND (18-22) at (924) SEATTLE (21-18)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (8-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(925) ARIZONA (18-21) at (926) BALTIMORE (25-12)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (5-10, -7.10 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+142 at BAL)
(929) TEXAS (22-18) at (930) COLORADO (10-28)
Trend: COL bad at night (6-17, -7.73 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+136 vs. TEX)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (23-16) at (902) PITTSBURGH (17-22)
Trend: Justin Steele is 12-4 (+8.08 units) against teams with 45% or less win pct
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at PIT)
(903) ATLANTA (23-12) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (18-19)
Trend: ATL is 12-2 in the last 14 road starts by Max Fried (+8.83 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 at NYM)
(905) PHILADELPHIA (27-12) at (906) MIAMI (10-30)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 7-3 (+2.45 units) vs. Miami in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 at MIA)
(907) ST LOUIS (15-23) at (908) MILWAUKEE (23-15)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 0-7 (-8.25 units) vs. MIL/CHC in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+145 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is 4-7 (-6.15 units) vs. St Louis with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-175 vs STL)
(909) CINCINNATI (17-21) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (17-23)
Trend: CIN is just 6-8 (-3.65 units) vs. losing teams with starter Nick Lodolo
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 at SF)
(913) MINNESOTA (23-15) at (914) TORONTO (17-21)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-15 (-16.34 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-155 vs MIN)
(917) HOUSTON (14-24) at (918) DETROIT (19-19)
Trend: HOU is 11-1 (+11.45 units) as a shorter road underdog (+105 to +125 range) with starter Cristian Javier in career
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+110 at DET)
(919) CLEVELAND (24-15) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (11-28)
Trend: CLE is 11-3 (+8.08 units) in the last 14 ROAD Divisional games with starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-166 at CWS)
Trend: CLE is 3-5 (-6.75 units) as large favorite (-170 or more) by starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (*if they get this high of favorites, -166 currently*)
(929) TEXAS (22-18) at (930) COLORADO (10-28)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 21-5 (+13.50 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-162 at COL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next on Monday 5/13)
