The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-225 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-130 vs NYM), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs DET), TORONTO (-122 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NYM-SF, PLAY UNDER in BOS-CLE, PLAY UNDER in CWS-MIN

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, NY METS, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8%. If it continues in 2024, it will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, ATLANTA RL, MINNESOTA RL, SAN DIEGO RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 22-11 for -4.78 units.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-230 vs. MIA), PLAY NY YANKEES (-225 vs. OAK), PLAY MINNESOTA (-198 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 14-9 in the three-and-a-half weeks and has lost -2.64 units, a season-low ROI of -11.5%.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-225 vs. OAK), FADE MINNESOTA (-198 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 47-53 record for +0.86 units. This angle did win, going 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+110 at SF), PHILADELPHIA (+102 at CIN), DETROIT (-105 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+102 vs TOR), SEATTLE (+102 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-26 for +6.01 units. The three-game teams are 14-15 for +1.42 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-130 vs NYM), FADE PITTSBURGH (-105 vs MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 23-19 for -3.03 units through Tuesday, 4/23, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs BOS), PLAY DETROIT (-105 at TB)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 27 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 15-12 for -0.58 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+110 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 322-295 (52.2%) for +40.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-115 vs AZ)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1470-1378 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-105 at STL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1328-1734 (43.4%) for -174.51 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, TORONTO, HOUSTON, NY METS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2963-2598 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -397.95 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO CUBS, COLORADO, LA ANGELS, SAN FRANCISCO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 836-712 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.33 units for backers and an ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-122 vs SEA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 168-87 (+13.53 units, ROI: 5.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 152-100 in their last 252 tries (+23.67 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 63-67 (-30.50 units, ROI: -23.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-142 vs BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +102 (+16 diff), COLORADO +136 (+17 diff), OAKLAND +185 (+29 diff), SEATTLE +102 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.6), CWS-MIN OVER 6.5 (+0.6), PHI-CIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ARIZONA (12-13) at (952) ST LOUIS (10-14)
Trend: St Louis has been bad during the day (2-9, -8.80 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-115 vs AZ)

(955) PHILADELPHIA (15-9) at (956) CINCINNATI (13-10)
Trend: Philadelphia is trending Under on the ROAD (0-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(957) MILWAUKEE (14-8) at (958) PITTSBURGH (13-11)
Trend: Milwaukee has been good on the road (10-4, +7.27 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-115 at PIT)

(961) MIAMI (6-19) at (962) ATLANTA (16-6)
Trend: Atlanta has been good at night (10-3, +4.20 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-230 vs MIA)

(963) SAN DIEGO (13-13) at (964) COLORADO (6-18)
Trend: Colorado trending Over at night (11-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11.5)

(965) BALTIMORE (15-8) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (10-14)
Trend: LAA is bad during the day (2-8, -5.97 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+110 vs BAL)

(969) DETROIT (14-10) at (970) TAMPA BAY (12-13)
Trend: Detroit has been good on the road (10-3, +8.25 units)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-105 at TB)

(971) OAKLAND (9-15) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (16-8)
Trend: NYY has been good against RH starters (12-3, +8.79 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-225 vs OAK)

(975) CHICAGO-AL (3-20) at (976) MINNESOTA (9-13)
Trend: CWS has been awful against RH starters (2-17, -14.10 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 at MIN)

(979) HOUSTON (7-17) at (980) CHICAGO-NL (14-9)
Trend: Houston has been trending Under in interleague play (0-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) PHILADELPHIA (15-9) at (956) CINCINNATI (13-10)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 10-5 (+7.61 units) vs. winning teams in his young career
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-122 vs PHI)

Trend: Cincinnati is 12-6 (+6.86 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-122 vs PHI)

(971) OAKLAND (9-15) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (16-8)
Trend: NYY is 8-1 (+6.45 units) as a large night favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-225 vs OAK)

(975) CHICAGO-AL (3-20) at (976) MINNESOTA (9-13)
Trend: MIN is 15-2 (+11.00 units) vs teams with a winning percentage of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-198 vs CWS)

(977) SEATTLE (12-11) at (978) TEXAS (12-12)
Trend: TEX is 6-8 (-2.37 units) in night games against teams with a winning record with Jon Gray in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-122 vs SEA)

Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 4/22-Wed 4/24
Trend: Baltimore has won 16 of the last 21 games (76.2%, +11.85 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 56.4%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-130 at LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY

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