The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: BOS is 1-9 (-10.23 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-118 vs. AZ)

Trend: MIA heavy Over at home (46-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in CHC-MIA (o/u at 8)

Trend: Cincinnati is 3-12 (20%, -9.25 units) in last 15 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -61.7%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-115 at PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 474-406 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.47 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 vs. STL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 159 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/23 and these teams are 90-69 for +12.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. TEX), LA ANGELS (+145 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first halfof 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. TEX)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON (-122 at BAL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-290 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-245 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/23, the record of this angle is in slight negative territory at 88-35 for -1.11 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-245 at CWS), NY YANKEES (-290 vs. COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 57-35 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.31 units, an ROI of -19.9%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-290 vs. COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 281-341 record for -19.01 units (ROI -3.1%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+145 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 at SEA), ARIZONA (-102 at BOS), ST LOUIS (+120 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+164 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicel
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 252-270 record for +5.57 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 at SEA), ARIZONA (-102 at BOS), ST LOUIS (+120 at MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 160-187 for -17.24 units. The three-game teams are 81-83 for +2.94 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. CIN), FADE TORONTO (175 vs. LAA), FADE TEXAS (+105 at CLE), FADE KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. PHI)
3+ games – FADE LA DODGERS (-198 vs. TB)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 159 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/23 and these teams are 90-69 for +12.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-125 vs. TEX), LA ANGELS (+145 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 354-333 (51.5%) for +30.56 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-118 vs. AZ), OAKLAND (+114 vs. MIL)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1641-1535 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -190.51 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-135 at OAK), ARIZONA (-102 at BOS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1549-1990 (43.8%) for -185.22 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+235 at NYY), WASHINGTON (+154 at ATL), NY METS (+130 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3321-2904 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -428.47 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 474-406 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.47 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 vs. STL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 274-230 (54.4%) for +38.28 units and an ROI of 7.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 vs. AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 144-157 (+6.64 units, ROI: 2.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+145 vs. CHC)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 79-91 (-47.79 units, ROI: -28.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-102 at BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +130 (+17 diff), COLORADO +245 (+70 diff), KANSAS CITY -105 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -245 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TB-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.9), TEX-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CHICAGO-NL (64-65) at (952) MIAMI (46-82)
Trend: MIA heavy Over at home (46-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(955) WASHINGTON (58-71) at (956) ATLANTA (69-59)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (20-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(957) NEW YORK-NL (67-62) at (958) SAN DIEGO (73-57)
Trend: SD good vs NL East/Central (36-22, +10.38 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-155 vs NYM)

(959) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-75) at (960) TORONTO (61-68)
Trend: TOR slight Over at home (38-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(963) TEXAS (60-69) at (964) CLEVELAND (73-55)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs. AL East/West (32-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(965) DETROIT (63-66) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (31-98)
Trend: DET leads the head-to-head season series (6-1 record)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-245 at CWS)

(967) COLORADO (47-82) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (76-53)
Trend: COL not as good on the road (18-49, -18.31 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+235 at NYY)

(969) MILWAUKEE (74-54) at (970) OAKLAND (55-74)
Trend: MIL has been dominant in interleague play (30-14, +17.07 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 at OAK)

(971) SAN FRANCISCO (65-65) at (972) SEATTLE (65-64)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (21-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)

(973) ARIZONA (73-56) at (974) BOSTON (67-60)
Trend: AZ slight Over vs. AL teams (24-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(975) ST LOUIS (64-64) at (976) MINNESOTA (71-57)
Trend: Both teams trending Over in interleague play (20-11 O/U and 22-13 O/U respectively)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(979) TAMPA BAY (64-64) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (77-52)
Trend: TB solid vs. NL teams (24-14, +7.15 units)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING TAMPA BAY (+164 at LAD)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(963) TEXAS (60-69) at (964) CLEVELAND (73-55)
Trend: TEX is 9-10 (-0.97 units) in night games against teams with a winning record with Jon Gray in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+105 at CLE)

(969) MILWAUKEE (74-54) at (970) OAKLAND (55-74)
Trend: MIL is 8-7 (-2.04 units) as a favorite of -125 or higher by starter Colin Rea
System Match: CONSIDER FADING MILWAUKEE (-135 at OAK)

(971) SAN FRANCISCO (65-65) at (972) SEATTLE (65-64)
Trend: SEA is 10-3 (+6.13 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-115 vs SF)

(973) ARIZONA (73-56) at (974) BOSTON (67-60)
Trend: BOS is 6-16 (-11.30 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-118 vs. AZ)

Trend: BOS is 1-9 (-10.23 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-118 vs. AZ)

(977) PHILADELPHIA (74-54) at (978) KANSAS CITY (72-56)
Trend: PHI is 9-4 (+7.63 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at KC)

(979) TAMPA BAY (64-64) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (77-52)
Trend: TB is 3-6 (-4.95 units) vs. NL teams with starter Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+164 at LAD)

Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Home teams are 8-21 (27.6%, -19.65 units) in the last 29 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -67.8%.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-175 vs LAA)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Cincinnati is 3-12 (20%, -9.25 units) in the last 15 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -61.7%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-115 at PIT)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 8/26)

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