Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
NYY momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 24-6 (80%) 15.15 units, ROI: 50.5%
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-125 at BAL)
TEX letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-23 (20.7%) -16.45 units, ROI: -56.7%
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+130 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-49 (-9.01 units, ROI: -12.9%) in their last 70 tries.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+164 at STL)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 9-0 (+9.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-245 vs. COL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 109-130 for -17.13 units. The three-game teams are 54-57 for -0.20 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (-142 vs. LAD), FADE TORONTO (+105 at AZ)
3+ games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 at STL), FADE KANSAS CITY (-115 at BOS)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3202-2798 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.78 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, HOUSTON
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-285 vs. OAK), NY METS (-245 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-162 vs. MIA), MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (+120 at DET), CLEVELAND (+120 at TB), NY YANKEES (-125 at BAL), BOSTON (-105 vs. KC), PITTSBURGH (+136 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-285 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-285 vs. OAK), LA DODGERS (+120 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+136 at CWS), ARIZONA (-125 vs. TOR), MINNESOTA (-142 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CLE-TB, MIN-SF
PLAY UNDER in: PIT-CWS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs. OAK), NY METS (-1.5 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-1.5 vs. MIA), MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs. WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 669-564 for -31.35 units. This is well below usual standards after a couple of losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 66-38 for -14.78 units and a ROI of -14.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-245 vs. COL), MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. WSH), ST LOUIS (-192 vs. CHC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is close to positive at 69-28 for -0.45 units after some big losses over the last two weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-285 vs. OAK)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 200-236 record for -6.54 units (ROI -1.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+120 at TB), BOSTON (-105 vs. KC), LA DODGERS (+120 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+136 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 178-180 record for +14.57 units (ROI 4.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. This angle has really stabilized over the past month or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+120 at TB), BOSTON (-105 vs. KC), LA DODGERS (+120 at DET), PITTSBURGH (+136 at CWS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 109-130 for -17.13 units. The three-game teams are 54-57 for -0.20 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (-142 vs. LAD), FADE TORONTO (+105 at AZ)
3+ games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 at STL), FADE KANSAS CITY (-115 at BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 121-110 for -11.05 units (-4.8% ROI) through Wednesday, 7/10. Over the last two-plus weeks, this system has taken a big hit (-14.21 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-245 vs. COL), HOUSTON (-155 vs. TEX), SEATTLE (-142 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-285 vs. OAK)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 111 plays on this angle in 2024 through 7/11, and these teams are 59-52 for +1.23 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 14-8, +5.88-unit performance over the last three weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (+120 at DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 350-322 (52.1%) for +39.21 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+120 vs. SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1587-1479 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.41 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-142 at LAA), DETROIT (-130 vs. LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1471-1916 (43.4%) for -200.54 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, OAKLAND, ATLANTA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3202-2798 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.78 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, HOUSTON
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 899-778 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +18.17 units for backers and an ROI of 1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-162 vs. PIT), MILWAUKEE (-225 vs. WSH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 454-390 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.90 units, for a ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+102 vs. ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 134-137 (+15.33 units, ROI: 5.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+102 vs. ATL), PLAY WASHINGTON (+185 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-49 (-9.01 units, ROI: -12.9%) in their last 70 tries.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+164 at STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +210 (+30 diff), WASHINGTON +200 (+20 diff), OAKLAND +230 (+30 diff), PITTSBURGH +136 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TEX-HOU OVER 8 (+0.8), WSH-MIL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.8), SEA-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB Betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) COLORADO (33-61) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (47-45)
Trend: COL bad vs. NL East/Central (10-26, -11.19 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+200 at NYM)
(903) MIAMI (32-61) at (904) CINCINNATI (45-49)
Trend: MIA worse at night (16-36, -16.59 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+136 at CIN)
(905) WASHINGTON (42-52) at (906) MILWAUKEE (54-40)
Trend: MIL slight Over vs. RH starters (40-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (45-49) at (908) ST LOUIS (48-44)
Trend: CHC bad in divisional play so far (10-19, -10.90 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+160 at STL)
(909) ATLANTA (51-41) at (910) SAN DIEGO (49-47)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. NL West/Central (11-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(911) CLEVELAND (57-35) at (912) TAMPA BAY (46-47)
Trend: CLE good vs. AL East/West (30-14, +15.67 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+120 at TB)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (56-39) at (914) BALTIMORE (57-36)
Trend: NYY not as good vs. LH starters (10-13, -11.01 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-125 at BAL)
(917) TEXAS (44-49) at (918) HOUSTON (49-44)
Trend: TEX slight Under at NIGHT (23-32 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(919) SEATTLE (52-43) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-55)
Trend: SEA great start in divisional play (18-5, +11.06 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at LAA)
(923) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-39) at (924) DETROIT (45-49)
Trend: LAD is 1-6 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at DET)
(925) PITTSBURGH (45-48) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (27-68)
Trend: CWS is 4-1 as a home favorite this season
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-162 vs PIT)
(929) MINNESOTA (53-40) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (45-49)
Trend: MIN pretty good vs. LH starters (16-8, +7.29 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-142 at SF)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) COLORADO (33-61) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (47-45)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 9-0 (+9.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-245 vs COL)
(919) SEATTLE (52-43) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-55)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 16-6 (+13.00 units) vs. AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING LA ANGELS (+120 vs SEA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. WASHINGTON: 8-20 (28.6%) -20.60 units, ROI: -73.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/12 vs. Colorado
System Matches: FADE NY METS (-245 vs COL)
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 24-6 (80%) 15.15 units, ROI: 50.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/12 at Baltimore
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-125 at BAL)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-23 (20.7%) -16.45 units, ROI: -56.7%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 7/12 at Houston
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+130 at HOU)
