The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 343-318 (51.9%) for +37.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+105 vs. NYY), BOSTON (-135 vs SD)

Trend: Pablo Lopez is 14-3 (+10.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at SEA)

Trend: Pittsburgh is 5-14 (26.3%, -5.06 units) in the last19 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -26.6%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 at ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 129-93 (+23.23 units, ROI: 10.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+105 vs. DET)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 102 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/28 and these teams are 54-48 for +0.35 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-108 at KC)

Trend: Favorites are just 19-32 (37.3%, -25.91 units) in the last 51 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -50.8%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-125 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-205 vs. OAK), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-108 at NYM), DETROIT (-125 at LAA), MINNESOTA (-125 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 at SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, BOSTON, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: WSH-TB, MIN-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: PIT-ATL, CLE-KC, LAD-SF

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON (-135 vs. SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. MIA), ARIZONA RL (vs. OAK), LA DODGERS RL (at SF)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, BOSTON, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, TAMPA BAY

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence, the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 57-30 for -7.48 units and an ROI of -8.6%. However, a 5-0 record cut into the losses significantly last week.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (-198 vs. CIN), FADE LA DODGERS (-205 at SF)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is back to positive at 64-25 for +1.30 units (awful day on 6/27, going 0-2 for -5.83 units).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs. MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 182-215 record for -5.01 units (ROI -1.3%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 26-24 for +6.78 units over the last twelve days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-108 at KC), HOUSTON (-108 at NYM), OAKLAND (+170 at AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 160-164 record for +11.22 units (ROI 3.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-108 at KC), HOUSTON (-108 at NYM)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-111 for -12.13 units. The three-game teams are 50-51 for +1.07 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SEATTLE (+105 vs. MIN)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-112 vs. CLE), FADE SAN DIEGO (+114 at BOS), FADE NY METS (-112 vs. HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 116-96 for +2.63 units (1.2% ROI) through Friday 6/28.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-115 vs. CHC), BALTIMORE (-155 vs. TEX)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 102 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/28, and these teams are 54-48 for +0.35 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-108 at KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 343-318 (51.9%) for +37.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+105 vs. NYY), BOSTON (-135 vs. SD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1569-1453 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.30 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-112 vs. CLE), OAKLAND (+170 at AZ), NY YANKEES (-125 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (+114 at BOS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1448-1896 (43.3%) for -206.66 units and an ROI of -6.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, TEXAS, HOUSTON, PITTSBURGH, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, DETROIT, MINNESOTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3171-2756 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -385.62 units and an ROI of -6.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, NY METS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS, SAN FRANCISCO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 895-767 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.33 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-198 vs CIN)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 291-141 (67.4%) for +45.08 units and an ROI of 10.4%!
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-112 vs. CLE)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 262-218 (54.6%) for +41.24 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 163-147 run (+42.17 units, ROI: 13.6%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at BAL), PLAY COLORADO (-105 at CWS)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 131-136 (+12.67 units, ROI: 4.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-98 (+15.14 units, ROI: 5.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-115 vs CHC)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 58-47 (+15.43 units, ROI: 14.7%) in their last 105 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+105 vs DET)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 129-93 (+23.23 units, ROI: 10.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+105 vs. DET)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 172-110 in their last 282 tries (+28.40 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+105 vs. DET)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +160 (+15 diff), MIAMI +215 (+40 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +170 (+30 diff), TORONTO +114 (+20 diff), COLORADO -102 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -115 (+27 diff), DETROIT -125 (+16 diff), BOSTON -135 (+20 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CLE-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CINCINNATI (38-44) at (952) ST LOUIS (42-39)
Trend: STL more Under vs divisional opponents (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(953) MIAMI (29-53) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (54-28)
Trend: PHI good vs. RH starters (34-13, +15.23 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs. MIA)

(957) CHICAGO-NL (38-45) at (958) MILWAUKEE (49-33)
Trend: MIL better during the day (24-12, +12.37 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-115 vs CHC)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (51-32) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (40-43)
Trend: SF not as good at night (20-27, -11.41 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+170 vs LAD)

(961) NEW YORK-AL (53-31) at (962) TORONTO (37-44)
Trend: NYY worse in divisional play (11-13, -5.54 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-125 at TOR)

(963) CLEVELAND (51-29) at (964) KANSAS CITY (46-38)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (17-5, +11.67 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-108 at KC)

Trend: KC better at HOME (29-15, +12.93 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-112 vs CLE)

(967) DETROIT (37-45) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (35-46)
Trend: LAA bad vs. AL Central/East (12-25, -10.89 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 vs DET)

(969) MINNESOTA (45-37) at (970) SEATTLE (47-37)
Trend: SEA is 5-2 this season as a home underdog
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+105 vs MIN)

(971) COLORADO (27-54) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (23-61)
Trend: CWS is 3-0 as a ML favorite this season
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-115 vs COL)

(975) HOUSTON (40-41) at (976) NEW YORK-NL (40-39)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (12-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(977) OAKLAND (30-54) at (978) ARIZONA (39-43)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (12-17, -9.69 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-205 vs OAK)

(979) WASHINGTON (38-43) at (980) TAMPA BAY (41-41)
Trend: TB solid start in interleague play (16-8, +7.25 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-135 vs WSH)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.

(955) PITTSBURGH (39-42) at (956) ATLANTA (45-35)
Trend: ATL is 17-3 (+12.10 units) vs. NL Central in starts by Max Fried
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 vs. PIT)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (51-32) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (40-43)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 33-8 (+12.63 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-205 at SF)

(963) CLEVELAND (51-29) at (964) KANSAS CITY (46-38)
Trend: CLE is 14-3 (+11.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-108 at KC)

(969) MINNESOTA (45-37) at (970) SEATTLE (47-37)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 14-3 (+10.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 at SEA)

(971) COLORADO (27-54) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (23-61)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 22-8 (+13.30 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (-105 at CWS)

(975) HOUSTON (40-41) at (976) NEW YORK-NL (40-39)
Trend: HOU is 6-1 (+5.05 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-108 at NYM)

Series #9: Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Fri 6/28-Sun 6/30
Trend: Pittsburgh is 5-14 (26.3%, -5.06 units) in the last 19 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -26.6%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+130 at ATL)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Favorites are just 19-32 (37.3%, -25.91 units) in the last 51 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -50.8%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-125 at TOR)

Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 18-6 (75%, +13.88 units) in the last 24 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 57.8%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at BAL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, 7/5)

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