The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-112 at WSH), TAMPA BAY (-118 vs NYM), MILWAUKEE (-130 at CHC), ATLANTA (-142 at LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, NY METS, ST LOUIS, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: COL-PIT, DET-NYY, MIA-OAK, SF-PHI
PLAY UNDER in: NYM-TB, BOS-MIN, CWS-STL, MIL-CHC

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through Monday, 4/23, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week, as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, NY METS, ST LOUIS, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 71-76 record for +3.72 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (+120 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-108 at AZ), PHILADELPHIA (-102 vs. SF), KANSAS CITY (+110 vs TEX), SEATTLE (+114 at HOU), WASHINGTON (-108 vs. TOR), NY METS (-102 at TB), BALTIMORE (+100 at CIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 36-33 for +5.11 units. The three-game teams are 19-23 for -2.91 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TAMPA BAY (-118 vs NYM)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 40-29 for +1.94 units thru Saturday 5/4.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (+120 vs. ATL), SAN DIEGO (-108 at AZ), PHILADELPHIA (-102 vs. SF), MINNESOTA (-170 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (-135 vs. MIA), BALTIMORE (+100 at CIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight NBA betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-300 (52%) for +38.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-120 vs SD), KANSAS CITY (+110 vs TEX)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1485-1385 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.47 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-130 vs. MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-102 vs. SF), TEXAS (-130 at KC), SAN DIEGO (+100 at AZ), LA DODGERS (+114 vs. ATL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1351-1765 (43.4%) for -182.67 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, COLORADO, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, NY METS, ATLANTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2991-2627 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.34 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, OAKLAND, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-722 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +31.55 units for backers and an ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs SEA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 431-361 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.16 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-108 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-135 vs. SEA), ARIZONA (-120 vs. SD)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 279-134 (67.6%) for +45.66 units and an ROI of 11.1%!
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs MIA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 249-208 (54.5%) for +37.90 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+110 vs. TEX), PLAY ARIZONA (-120 vs. SD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 142-116 run (+51.30 units, ROI: 19.9%).
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 171-88 (+15.23 units, ROI: 5.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-170 vs BOS), PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs MIA)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 124-87 (+23.75 units, ROI: 11.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (-130 vs MIA)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 156-101 in their last 257 tries (+26.37 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-170 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 65-71 (-33.76 units, ROI: -24.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-108 at AZ)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB Betting Trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +120 (+36 diff), SEATTLE +114 (+34 diff), BOSTON +142 (+22 diff), BALTIMORE +100 (+19 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -155 (+32 diff), CLEVELAND -135 (+24 diff), ST LOUIS -155 (+35 diff), OAKLAND -135 (+16 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-CLE OVER 8 (+1.2), BOS-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.0), DET-NYY OVER 6.5 (+1.0), SF-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.6), NYM-TB OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.

(903) MILWAUKEE (20-12) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (20-14)
Trend: MIL is 9-3 (+5.20 units) vs CWS/CHC with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 at CHC)

(905) ATLANTA (20-11) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (22-13)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (3-1, +1.38 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-142 at LAD)

(911) DETROIT (18-15) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (22-13)
Trend: DET is 9-1 (+11.85 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win pct in career
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+114 at NYY)

Trend: NYY is 12-2 (+9.65 units) at home in day games with starter Nestor Cortes in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs DET)

(919) BOSTON (18-16) at (920) MINNESOTA (19-13)
Trend: MIN is 9-3 (+5.66 units) vs AL East teams with starter Joe Ryan in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-170 vs BOS)

(921) TORONTO (16-18) at (922) WASHINGTON (16-17)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 2-8 (-7.58 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-108 vs TOR)

(923) NEW YORK-NL (16-17) at (924) TAMPA BAY (16-18)
Trend: Luis Severino is 17-4 (+12.90 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-102 at TB)

Trend: Luis Severino is 4-13 (-7.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-102 at TB)

(929) BALTIMORE (22-11) at (930) CINCINNATI (16-17)
Trend: CIN is 11-5 (+8.61 units) vs winning teams with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs BAL)

Trend: CIN is 13-6 (+7.86 units) at HOME with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs BAL)

Series #16: LA Angels at Cleveland, Fri 5/3-Sun 5/5
Trend: Home teams are 16-3 (84.2%, +12.21 units) in the last 19 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 64.3%
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-135 vs LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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