Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
(955) ST LOUIS (15-24) at (956) MILWAUKEE (24-15)
Trend: Losing Streak Betting System #4: Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 28-60 in their last 88 tries (-18.20 units, ROI: -20.7%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
Trend: Better bullpen teams build length winning streaks (MIL on 3 game win streak)
Systems Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-155 vs STL)
(959) LA DODGERS (27-14) at (960) SAN DIEGO (21-21)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 33-10 (+13.25 units) against divisional teams since 2019
Trend: LAD is an underpriced favorite today based on the Strength Ratings (+40 points off)
Systems Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-115 at SD)
(971) KANSAS CITY (24-17) at (972) LA ANGELS (15-25)
Trend: LAA is 1-12 (-12.55 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
Trend: LAA is 4-15 (-14.05 units) in L19 DAY game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 2-10 (-7.70 units) in the last 12 starts as a day game underdog)
Trend: “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game (FADE LAA)
Systems Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-118 at LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs. AZ), BOSTON (-155 vs. WSH), TEXAS (-148 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: AZ-BAL, PHI-MIA, HOU-DET
PLAY UNDER in: WSH-BOS, CIN-SF, LAD-SD, OAK-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in MAY were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, NY METS, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, TEXAS
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are 23-12 for -1.87 units and an ROI of -5%. However, the ROI dropped 41% over the past 31 days.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE (-238 vs OAK)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 35-16 for -4.03 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 91-106 record, for -1.57 units.. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+102 vs ATL), DETROIT (-105 vs HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 32-41 for +0.19 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 18-23 for -6.82 units. The three-game teams are 23-25 for -0.28 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 9-12 for -3.78 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE ATLANTA (-122 at NYM), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs CLE), FADE COLORADO (+124 vs TEX)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak are 53-40 for -1.85 units through Saturday, 5/11, after a 29-28, +5.25 units stretch over the last three-plus weeks.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 vs STL), PLAY BALTIMORE (-125 vs AZ)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 48 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/11 and these teams are 29-19 for +4.93 units.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-166 at CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 327-302 (52%) for +37.94 units of profit. This represents a ROI of 6%.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-238 vs. OAK)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1496-1398 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.76 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+105 vs. MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at PIT), PITTSBURGH (-105 vs. CHC), LA ANGELS (+110 vs. KC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1365-1782 (43.4%) for -183.44 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+130 at BOS), NY YANKEES (-142 at TB), HOUSTON (-115 at DET), CLEVELAND (-166 at CWS), CINCINNATI (+114 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3018-2638 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.38 units and a ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, COLORADO, LA ANGELS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-731 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +21.55 units for backers and a ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-238 vs OAK), NY METS (+102 vs ATL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 24-69 skid (-28.80 units, ROI -31%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 46-94 skid (-23.99 units, ROI: -17.1%).
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 57-119 (-46.78 units, ROI: -26.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 28-60 in their last 88 tries (-18.20 units, ROI: -20.7%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 77-63 outright (+5.87 units, ROI: 4.2%).
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 68-76 (-38.59 units, ROI: -26.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-122 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -105 (+35 diff), MIAMI +200 (+45 diff), OAKLAND +195 (+41 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -135 (+30 diff), LA DODGERS -115 (+40 diff), HOUSTON -115 (+23 diff), NY YANKEES -142 (+17 diff), KANSAS CITY -122 (+24 diff), BALTIMORE -125 (+19 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SD OVER 7.5 (+1.1), AZ-BAL OVER 7.5 (+1.0), WSH-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CIN-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6), HOU-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-MIL UNDER 9 (-0.7), CLE-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.7), OAK-SEA UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) PHILADELPHIA (28-12) at (954) MIAMI (10-31)
Trend: PHI is 19-4 (+12.97 units) in the last 23 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 at MIA)
(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (27-14) at (960) SAN DIEGO (21-21)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 33-10 (+13.25 units) against divisional competition since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-115 at SD)
(961) ATLANTA (24-12) at (962) NEW YORK-NL (18-20)
Trend: Luis Severino is 4-13 (-7.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+102 vs ATL)
(963) MINNESOTA (23-16) at (964) TORONTO (18-21)
Trend: MIN is 3-9 (-7.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-122 at TOR)
(965) HOUSTON (14-25) at (966) DETROIT (20-19)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 24-7 (+9.10 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-105 vs HOU)
(971) KANSAS CITY (24-17) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (15-25)
Trend: LAA is 1-12 (-12.55 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+100 vs KC)
Trend: LAA is 4-15 (-14.05 units) in the last 19 day game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 2-10 (-7.70 units) in the last 12 starts as a day game underdog)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+100 vs KC)
(975) ARIZONA (18-22) at (976) BALTIMORE (26-12)
Trend: BAL is 25-7 (+17.11 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-130 vs AZ)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow 5/13)
