Rays vs. Guardians
The best-of-seven is now a best-of-three in the ALCS, as the Rays and Guardians have split the first four games of the set and a pivotal Game 5 is on tap for Sunday. Friday night’s postponement took away the travel day for these teams, so they will fly to Tampa right after tonight’s tilt to try and settle down and get some rest before an elimination game tomorrow night. We’ll see which team is on the brink and which team might sleep a tad easier when getting to St. Pete.
Rays (-132, 6.5) vs. Guardians Prediction
Sunday, 5 p.m. ET
Drew Rasmussen and the Rays are heavy favorites to head home with a 3-2 lead, as Parker Messick and the Guardians try to take two of three on their home turf. Cleveland did steal Game 1 with Rasmussen on the bump, and hung in there pretty well against him. While the bulk of their damage came off of the bullpen, Cleveland scratched out eight hits over six innings against Rasmussen, with two of those hits landing in the seats. He gave up nine hard-hit balls and only had seven Whiffs in 52 swings with his heavy assortment of high fastballs and cutters.
Unlike most playoff pitchers, Rasmussen did not have a bump in velo. It will be a tad autumnal in Cleveland today with a first-pitch temp around 58, but not nearly as bad as things were last night. We’ll see if Rasmussen is able to throw as hard as normal and if he’s able to get loose in the cooler conditions. He had a 2.67 ERA with a 3.05 xERA and a 2.81 FIP over 172 innings during the regular season and has allowed just two runs in 14 innings this postseason. The Yankees only managed one hit over eight innings off of him in the ALDS.
Rasmussen’s start came last Monday, so he’s well-rested based on how this series has played out to this point. Messick is going on normal rest after pitching in Game 2 on Tuesday. He only had six Whiffs out of 34 swings, as he really struggled to find the zone and saw a noticeable velo drop at the end of his start. He threw 82 pitches in that one and only induced a 24% Chase Rate. He allowed 10 hard-hit balls as well.
I am extremely concerned that Messick is running on fumes. The southpaw made 32 starts over 186.1 innings in the regular season and this will be his fourth postseason start. He threw fewer than 140 innings last season and only 39.2 of them were at the MLB level. He threw 133.2 innings in the minors in 2024. While his velo has been fine, Messick’s BB% in the postseason is 15.1% with eight walks in just 11.2 innings. He only had a 6.6% BB% during the regular season and a 3.6% BB% last season in his seven MLB starts.
The Rays are not a patient offensive team. They drew two walks against Messick in Game 2. All three of their runs were unearned, as a ball stayed down after hitting the lip of the turf in Tampa and went right through Jose Ramirez to open things up for Tampa.
Cleveland had a bullpen game yesterday and used seven relievers, but none of them were named Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, or Erik Sabrowski. Tanner Bibee is the only pitcher who hasn’t been used in this series yet. If Messick gets in trouble early, Stephen Vogt might have to go that route, though everybody but Foster Griffin and Gavin Williams will be available tonight. I think Vogt will want to shy away from using Daniel Espino, who has worked two of the last three days.
The Rays used four relievers and Ian Seymour was the only one who had a big lift, as Nick Martinez mixed and matched well over 5.1 innings of work.
A couple things I like today:
Parker Messick Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105): We’ll see if he can fix his control issues, but he sure looks to be overthrowing to me and the Rays did not fish at the changeup or his tugged fastballs to the glove side. I think he’s just out of gas.
Rays 1st 5 -0.5 (+110): I’m hoping this game is within reach for Cleveland as we hit the bullpens, as they could have an advantage with their top arms ready to go, but Rasmussen vs. Messick is just not something I like much. This is an alternate way of backing the starting pitcher advantage we all see in the moneyline price without drinking that juice or dealing with the bullpens late.
