The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same-series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 29-42 SU (-18.53 units, ROI: -26.1%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-132 at CLE)

Trend: Under the total is 5-0 when starter Parker Messick faces TB in his career (0.86 ERA in these five appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Trend: Under the total is on a 19-5-1 (79.2%, +13.55 units) run in Guardians-Rays h2h series (5.44 runs per game in these 25 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 56.5%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 28-23 to the Under for +3.15 units
* TAMPA BAY: 21-17-1 to the Under for +2.30 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Line angles
In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 60-68 for -24.09 units (ROI: -18.8%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-132 at CLE)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 69-71 SU (-21.43 units, ROI: -15.3%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+110 vs TB)

Series wins status
Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 100-91 on run lines (+23.32 units, ROI: 12.2%) since ’15.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs TB)

Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 46-72 SU (-14.68 units, ROI: -12.4%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs TB)

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 52-55 SU (+8.41 units, ROI: 7.9%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs TB)

Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 117-111-3, and Overs have produced a return of +20.39 units, an ROI of 9.4%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards UNDER’s in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

LCS Round angles
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 50-48 (+14.87 units, ROI: 15.2%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs TB)

– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring 7 runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 29-42 SU (-18.53 units, ROI: -26.1%) since 2015, including 6-9 the last two years.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-132 at CLE)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (9-6, +4.88 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+110 vs TB)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 690-691 for +10.62 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND +110 (+13 diff)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(945) TAMPA BAY (103-66) at (946) CLEVELAND (90-81)
Trend: CLE is 39-18 (+9.18 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs TB)
Trend: Under the total is 19-6-1 (+12.35 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend: Under the total is 5-0 when starter Parker Messick faces TB in his career (0.86 ERA in these five appearances)
Trend: Under the total is 59-47-2 (+7.30 units) when CLE faces RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Series #2: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Under the total is on a 19-5-1 (79.2%, +13.55 units) run in Guardians-Rays h2h series (5.44 runs per game in these 25 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 56.5%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (18-14, -1.39 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-132 at CLE)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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