The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: UNDER the total has gone 14-1 (+12.90 units) in L15 games where NY Yankees was favored vs divisional foes

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5)

* Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).

System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

Trend: UNDERDOGS are on 14-4 (77.8%, +15.06 units) surge in SEA-DET h2h series

–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 83.7%

Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (4-3, +0.06 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (3-5 for -1.92 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY), SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a R.O.I. of -8.6%. For ‘25, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – DETROIT (-137 at SEA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (2-1 for +1.00 unit in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, DETROIT

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

ROAD FAVORITES of -140 or higher are on a 33-18 SU run since ‘01 (+5.65 units, ROI: +11.1%)
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

In that same span since ’01, shorter ROAD FAVORITES of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-137 at SEA)

Coming off wins/losses

HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 56-59 SU (-18.54 units, ROI: -16.1%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

HOME TEAMS coming off a WIN in a series game have been a better option, 74-63 SU (-5.54 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

Series wins status

For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 70-48 SU (+14.84 units, ROI: 12.6%) and 62-56 on run lines (+14.63 units, ROI: 12.4%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Stats from last game trends

Teams that are favored in a MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 50-62 SU (-33.41 units, ROI: -29.8%) and 36-76 on run lines (-32.08 units, ROI: -28.6%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 54-47 SU (+4.23 units, ROI: 4.2%) surge and 55-46 on run lines (+7.25 units, ROI: +7.2%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit 3 home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since ’02.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, +129 currently*)

Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 34-60 SU (-17.85 units, ROI: -19%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

Trends based upon regular-season records

In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-44 SU (+15.82 units, ROI: 17.2%) and 59-33 on run lines (+16.08 units, ROI: 17.5%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

Totals angles

The last four MLB postseasons have been VERY good for OVER bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 86-81-1, OVER’s have produced a return of +22.61 units, a ROI of 13.5%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5), DET-SEA (o/u at 5.5)

Divisional Round Angles

Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 58-39 SU (+4.82 units, ROI: 5%) and 53-44 on run lines (+16.27 units, ROI: 16.8%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1979-1863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY) 

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1972-2511 (44%) for -242.49 units and a R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4000-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.51 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 vs NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:

Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 264-282 run (+6.37 units, ROI: 1.2%).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DET-SEA OVER 5.5 (+0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(941) NEW YORK-AL (96-70) at (942) TORONTO (95-68)
Trend: UNDER the total has gone 14-1 (+12.90 units) in L15 games where NYY was favored vs divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 52-38 in L6 seasons when he starts against opponents with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

(933) DETROIT (89-76) at (934) SEATTLE (90-72)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-7 (+8.98 units) in his L29 NIGHT game starts

Trend: Luis Castillo is 2-5 (-6.93 units) vs Detroit in L6 seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-137 at SEA)

Trend: DET is 34-51 (-21.85 units) on the run line in ROAD games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-1.5 at SEA)

Trend: OVER the total is 56-41-2 (+10.90 units) in Tigers’ NIGHT games this season

Trend: OVER the total is 59-45-5 (+9.50 units) in Mariners’ NIGHT games this season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DET-SEA (o/u at 7)

Series #1: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Trend: FAVORITES are just 27-43 (38.6%, -33.23 units) in the L70 games between Toronto & NY Yankees

–     The R.O.I. on this trend is -47.5%

Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)

Series #2: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

Trend: UNDERDOGS are on 14-4 (77.8%, +15.06 units) surge in SEA-DET h2h series

–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 83.7%

Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 vs DET)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR