Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 52-22 SU for +21.69 units (ROI: 29.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-134 vs ATL)
Trend: Over the total is 18-6 (+11.75 units) when starter Jesus Luzardo is at home and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-PHI (o/u at 8)
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 89-72 (+21.11 units, ROI: 13.1%) in their last 161 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 196-150 for +7.69 units and an ROI of +2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+127 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as valuable as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 54-48 for -9.71 units for an ROI of -9.5%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 130-187 start for -17.89 after losing about 28 units over the last nine-and-a-half weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+137 at MIA), COLORADO (+142 vs CLE)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 73-44 for -24.42 units, ROI -20.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-194 vs TOR), LA DODGERS (-224 vs PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 265-318 for -18.91 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 74-71, +15.28 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+116 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+127 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 220-139 for +55.27 units, an ROI of +15.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-113 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-118 vs MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-197 start for -33.16 units (ROI -9.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 67-91 for -23.69 units and a solid ROI of -15%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PITTSBURGH (+207 at LAD)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET), MINNESOTA (+110 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 133-150 for +2.42 units. However, it has lost -10.88 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-124 vs TB), ATHLETICS (+165 at HOU), COLORADO (+142 vs CLE)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 520-416 for +43.47 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-194 vs TOR), KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET), MINNESOTA (+110 at SD), LA DODGERS (-224 vs PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 257-190 for +25.62 units and an ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-113 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 157-199 for -40.27 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 450-389 but for -98.30 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-142 vs WSH), ARIZONA (-141 vs CIN), SAN DIEGO (-118 vs MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 467-416 record for +44.11 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+110 at SD), LA ANGELS (+127 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2202-2078 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.48 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+228 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+131 at AZ), LA ANGELS (+127 at TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2264-2839 (44.4%) for -259.69 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+124 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (+116 at BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at BOS), WASHINGTON (+132 at MIA), ATHLETICS (+165 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 at SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 674-566 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.30 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-140 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 357-318 (52.9%) for +22.06 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-177 vs ATH)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 113-163 SU (-24.26 units, ROI: -8.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+228 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+110 at SD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-283 SU but for +37.37 units (ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+142 vs CLE)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 52-22 SU for +21.69 units (ROI: 29.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-134 vs ATL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 52-38 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS at SEA (-102 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 331-340 run (+14.10 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-124 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 89-72 (+21.11 units, ROI: 13.1%) in their last 161 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 212-164 (+23.51 units, ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL), KANSAS CITY (+105 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 266-175 in their last 441 tries (+40.62 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 50-13 SU (+16.17 units, ROI: 25.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 539-525 for +23.94 units, good for +2.3% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ST LOUIS +228 (+49 diff), LA ANGELS +127 (+11), COLORADO +142 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -118 (+43 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -140 (+27), MILWAUKEE -134 (+25), ARIZONA -141 (+25), HOUSTON -177 (+25), SEATTLE -105 (+19), BOSTON -170 (+12)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 19-11-2 for +6.13 units and an ROI of 20.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: WSH-MIA OVER 7.5 (+1.1)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ATLANTA (75-53) at (902) MILWAUKEE (79-49)
Trend: Under the total is 24-10-2 (+13.00 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 6)
(903) ST LOUIS (66-63) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (70-58)
Trend: STL is 49-24 (+14.60 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: Over the total is 18-6 (+11.75 units) when starter Jesus Luzardo is at home and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-PHI (o/u at 8)
(905) WASHINGTON (61-68) at (906) MIAMI (64-64)
Trend: WSH is 42-24 (+11.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIA)
(907) CINCINNATI (61-67) at (908) ARIZONA (67-61)
Trend: AZ is 14-4 (+9.94 units) in Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 18 home starts
Trend: AZ is 21-11 (+12.51 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-141 vs CIN)
(911) TAMPA BAY (76-51) at (912) BALTIMORE (61-67)
Trend: TB is 23-12 (+9.73 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+116 at BAL)
Trend: Under the total is 25-16 (+7.95 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-BAL (o/u at 7.5)
(913) TORONTO (63-66) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (72-55)
Trend: NYY is 17-7 (+5.78 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-194 vs TOR)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (51-77) at (916) TEXAS (63-65)
Trend: Over the total is 14-4-1 (+9.75 units) in road games with lower totals (o/u <= 8) with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: LAA is 9-19 (-10.35 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+127 at TEX)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 11-18 (-12.82 units) when he starts in home games vs teams with losing records in L3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-137 vs LAA)
(919) DETROIT (61-66) at (920) KANSAS CITY (55-74)
Trend: Under the total is 15-4 (+10.70 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 8.5)
(921) SAN FRANCISCO (52-75) at (922) BOSTON (68-59)
Trend: SF is 23-42 (-15.95 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at BOS)
Trend: Under the total is 41-26-1 (+11.75 units) in SF night games with starter Logan Webb against opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-BOS (o/u at 7.5)
(925) CLEVELAND (62-66) at (926) COLORADO (50-77)
Trend: Under the total is 11-3 (+7.80 units) when CLE is within -200 to +115 line range on the road with starter Joey Cantillo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-COL (o/u at 10.5)
(927) MINNESOTA (63-65) at (928) SAN DIEGO (68-60)
Trend: Over the total is 37-20-5 (+15.00 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SD (o/u at 8)
Trend: SD is 18-5 (+12.53 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-118 vs MIN)
(929) CHICAGO-NL (74-54) at (930) SEATTLE (60-68)
Trend: Over the total is 18-9-1 (+8.10 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SEA (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 8/21-Sun 8/23
Trend: Favorites are just 33-50 (39.8%, -38.19 units) in the last 83 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -46%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-194 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): MINNESOTA (+110 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-170 vs SF), NY METS (+131 at CWS), CLEVELAND (-153 at COL), MINNESOTA (+110 at SD), SEATTLE (-105 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-105 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-COL (o/u at 10.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 24)
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