Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox (-175, 7.5)
The Giants (52-75) just dropped two of three against the Guardians, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as +190 road dogs. On the other hand, the Red Sox (68-59) just took two of three against the Diamondbacks but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 7-6 in extra innings as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Giants hand the ball to righty Logan Webb (8-7, 3.50 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Sonny Gray (15-3, 2.65 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -165 home favorite and San Francisco a +145 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Red Sox at Fenway, pushing Boston up from -165 to -175, with some shops inching up toward -180.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season and are facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Red Sox here, are 107-60 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Friday night favorites priced -175 or higher are 25-10 (71%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Boston also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Red Sox were off yesterday and continue a homestand while the Giants played in Cleveland yesterday and now travel to Boston.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing an opponent who played the previous day are 37-17 (69%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Boston offers correlative betting value as a heavier favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Gray has posted a 0.95 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. He is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA at home and 11-2 with a 2.10 ERA in night games.
Boston also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.95 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.25 for San Francisco (20th).
The Giants are 23-42 (35%) on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-125, 8)
The Rays (76-51) just lost two of three against the Blue Jays, falling 5-1 in yesterday’s series finale as -165 home favorites. Similarly, the Orioles (61-67) just got swept by the Yankees, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as a +100 home dog.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Freddy Peralta (5-10, 5.27 ERA) and the Orioles turn to lefty Trevor Rogers (8-8, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +115 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays as a plus money dog, as we’ve seen this line dip away from Baltimore (-130 to -125) and toward Tampa Bay (+115 to +110).
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog.
Tampa Bay offers betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities.
The Rays are 52-31 (63%) with a 13% ROI against teams with below .500 records, the best mark in MLB against losing teams.
Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .261 with a .331 OBP compared to Baltimore hitting .235 with a .319 OBP. The Rays are also hitting .249 against lefties (9th in MLB) while Baltimore is hitting .235 against righties (25th).
Tampa Bay is 33-28 on the road and 49-26 in night games. Baltimore is 32-33 at home and 35-40 in night games.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-115, 8) at Kansas City Royals
The Tigers (61-66) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing the series finale 4-3 as +140 road dogs. On the other hand, the Royals (55-74) just swept the Athletics, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-2 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers start righty Troy Melton (7-1, 1.71 ERA) and the Royals rebuttal with lefty Noah Cameron (7-8, 4.16 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 road favorite and Kansas City a +105 home dog.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Tigers, who are receiving 67% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Detroit fall from -120 to -115 and even as low as -110 across the market. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Royals as the line has moved in their direction (+105 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Kansas City is receiving 32% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the Vegas pros.
Divisional dogs off a win, like the Royals here, are 119-131 (48%) this season but have produced a 6% ROI due to the plus money payouts. Divisional dogs off a win with line movement in their favor facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 26-25 (51%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Cameron has pitched well in his last five starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 37.2 inning pitched (1.21 ERA).
The Tigers are only hitting .231 against lefties this season, ranking 27th out of 30 MLB teams.
Kansas City is 33-30 at home. Detroit is 29-35 on the road.
