Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: HOU is 4-11 (-9.19 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or lower (including underdog) in divisional games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-131 vs TEX)
Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 250-325 for -75.35 units (ROI: -13.1%) when not matched up against the same.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at TB), LA ANGELS (+125 vs MIL), LA DODGERS (-136 vs BOS)
Trend: WSH is 38-15 (+18.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 173-133 for +2.79 units and an ROI of +0.9% after a 19-11, +5.76 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-131 vs MIA), HOUSTON (-131 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-173 vs MIN), BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI), TORONTO (-187 vs STL), CLEVELAND (-141 vs AZ), BOSTON (+113 at LAD)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 46-39 for -5.99 units (ROI: -7.0%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-132 at CIN), WASHINGTON (-102 at ATL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 66-99 for -36.99 units and an ROI of -22.4%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at TB), LA ANGELS (+125 vs MIL), LA DODGERS (-136 vs BOS)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 119-157 start for -2.26 units. After losing about 12 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks, this angle is finally back to the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+119 vs DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 226-273 for -24.02 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 34-26, +10.16 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+110 vs PIT), NY YANKEES (+134 at CHC), COLORADO (-108 vs KC), BOSTON (+113 at LAD)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 189-119 for +47.57 units, an ROI of +15.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-118 vs WSH), BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 140-170 start for -22.03 units (ROI -7.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at TB), ARIZONA (+117 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at SD), BOSTON (+113 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 110-121 for +3.49 units. However, it has lost -9.81 units over the last three weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-132 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-105 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+125 vs MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 507-404 for +44.40 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-131 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-185 for +25.49 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-111 at COL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 153-194 for -39.50 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+119 vs DET)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 434-379 but for -99.80 units and an ROI of -12.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs NYY), BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI), CLEVELAND (-141 vs AZ), HOUSTON (-131 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-173 vs MIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,172-2,054 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.37 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI), DETROIT (-143 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,220-2,784 (44.4%) for -256.30 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+134 at CHC), TEXAS (+109 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at TB), ST LOUIS (+153 at TOR), MIAMI (+109 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (-132 at CIN)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 662-557 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.94 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-108 vs KC)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 110-158 SU (-23.64 units, ROI: -8.8%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR BALTIMORE vs PHI (-115 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-274 SU but for +46.37 units (ROI: 9.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+119 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 454-445 for +8.34 units, good for +0.9% ROI. TODAY’s MATCHES:
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CINCINNATI +110 (+11 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BALTIMORE -114 (+30 diff), HOUSTON -131 (+21), DETROIT -143 (+16), ATLANTA -118 (+15), TAMPA BAY -142 (+14), SAN DIEGO -150 (+13), MILWAUKEE -160 (+12)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 107-83 for +14.00 units and an ROI of 7.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CWS-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), SF-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PITTSBURGH (55-55) at (952) CINCINNATI (51-57)
Trend: PIT is 16-6 (+8.44 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-132 at CIN)
Trend: Over the total is 43-27 (+13.30 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 8)
Trend: CIN is 13-23 (-11.55 units) vs divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+110 vs PIT)
(955) WASHINGTON (55-55) at (956) ATLANTA (64-45)
Trend: WSH is 38-15 (+18.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at ATL)
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (47-62) at (958) SAN DIEGO (55-54)
Trend: Under the total is 29-19-6 (+8.10 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-SD (o/u at 8.5)
(959) CHICAGO-AL (57-51) at (960) TAMPA BAY (64-44)
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 6-18 (-10.95 units) in his last 24 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+118 at TB)
Trend: Under the total is 15-8-1 (+6.15 units) when starter Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since start of 2024 season
Trend: Under the total is 13-3-2 (+9.75 units) when starter Nick Martinez is at home and facing opponents with a winning record since the start of the 2022 season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: TB is 47-34 (+26.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CWS)
(961) TEXAS (55-54) at (962) HOUSTON (55-55)
Trend: HOU is 4-11 (-9.19 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-131 vs TEX)
(965) MINNESOTA (55-55) at (966) SEATTLE (53-57)
Trend: SEA is 18-8 (+4.35 units) as a home favorite of -125 or higher with starter Bryce Miller since the start of the 2023 season
Trend: SEA is 11-5 (+5.28 units) with starter Bryce Miller vs AL Central opponents in last few seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-173 vs MIN)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (61-48) at (968) CHICAGO-NL (62-47)
Trend: NYY is 8-2 (+5.05 units) in road day games with starter Will Warren since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (+134 at CHC)
Trend: CHC is 39-18 (+13.10 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs NYY)
(969) PHILADELPHIA (57-52) at (970) BALTIMORE (53-56)
Trend: BAL is 14-3 (+12.80 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI)
(971) ST LOUIS (54-55) at (972) TORONTO (50-59)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are just 11-10 (-5.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-187 vs STL)
(973) ARIZONA (57-52) at (974) CLEVELAND (56-54)
Trend: Under the total is 26-18-4 (+6.20 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
(975) KANSAS CITY (46-64) at (976) COLORADO (42-67)
Trend: KC is 19-30 (-15.98 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 at COL)
(977) MILWAUKEE (67-41) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (42-67)
Trend: LAA is 25-48 (-14.08 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+125 vs MIL)
(979) BOSTON (57-51) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-40)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 22-11 (+11.12 units) when he starts in line range -115 to +115 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at LAD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-142 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (-150 vs SF), SEATTLE (-173 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-115 vs PHI), TORONTO (-187 vs STL), CLEVELAND (-141 vs AZ), NY METS (-131 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-173 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ATH (o/u at 11)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 19-18 (51.4%) +7.14 units, ROI: 19.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (-108 vs KC)
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