Today we wrap up the work week and finish off the month of July with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs (-165, 9)
The Yankees (61-48) just split a four-game series against the White Sox, dropping yesterday’s series finale 2-1 in extras as a -105 road dog. Meanwhile, the Cubs (62-47) just took three of four against the Cardinals, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-2 in extras as a -105 road dog.
In this afternoon’s Interleague series opener, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA) and the Cubs go with lefty Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and New York a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to earn a series opening win at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 65% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 153-93 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Cubs here, are 125-74 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their favor, Chicago is 39-23 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season, the 4th best line move team in MLB.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .249 with 564 runs scored compared to New York hitting .233 with 506 runs scored.
Imanaga has posted a 1.19 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Warren has posted a 7.50 ERA in five July starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. He has a 5.00 ERA on the road compared to 3.75 at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 8.5)
The White Sox (57-51) just split a four-game series against the Yankees, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-1 in extras as a -115 home favorite. On the other hand, the Rays (64-44) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as a -185 home favorite.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox start righty Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.25 ERA) and the Rays go with fellow righty Nick Martinez (10-2, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 home favorite and Chicago a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying modest chalk at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, Tampa Bay is receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home team.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 153-93 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Friday night favorites receiving line movement in their direction are 87-49 (64%) with an 8% ROI this season.
When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, Tampa Bay has gone 36-19 (66%) with a 14% ROI this season, the best line move chalk team in MLB.
Tampa Bay is 6-0 in Martinez’s last six starts. He has posted a 1.59 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched. He is 8-0 with a 2.20 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Fedde has posted a 5.40 ERA on the road compared to 3.20 at home.
The Rays are 40-16 at home, the best home record in MLB. The White Sox are 23-30 on the road.
10:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 8.5)
The Red Sox (57-51) just took three of four against the Athletics, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as a -190 road favorite. Similarly, the Dodgers (69-40) just took two of three against the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-2 as a -150 home favorite.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox send out lefty Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.02 ERA) and the Dodgers tap righty Edgardo Henriquez (4-1, 2.79 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favorite and Boston a +100 road dog.
The public is leaning toward the Red Sox as a short dog. However, despite Boston receiving 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the line move further toward Los Angeles -120 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Dodgers, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Dodgers are taking in 57% of moneyline bets but 83% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 153-93 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Friday night favorites, like the Dodgers here, are 123-78 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Sweet spot home favorites priced between -125 and -150 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 57-30 (66%) with a 15% ROI since 2025.
When the Dodgers are a “short” home favorite -150 or less, Los Angeles is 46-20 (70%) with a 21% ROI since 2022. When the Dodgers receive line movement in their favor, Los Angeles is 36-16 (69%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .261 with 562 runs scored compared to the Red Sox hitting .244 with 454 runs scored.
Henriquez has posted a 0.79 ERA at home compared to 5.12 on the road.
