Today we kick off the weekend and ring in the month of August with a 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:07 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays (-145, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (51-59) won last night’s Interleague series opener 3-1, taking care of business as -200 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Cardinals (54-56) start lefty Quinn Mathews, who is making his MLB debut after going 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in AAA this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays counter with righty Kevin Gausman (4-10, 4.51 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Blue Jays to win another game at home laying modest chalk, pushing the Blue Jays up from -135 to -145 and even -150 at some shops across the market.
At DraftKings, Toronto is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Toronto has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Gausman has posted a 3.86 ERA at home and a 3.72 ERA in day games compared to a 5.33 ERA on the road and a 5.18 ERA in night games.
The Blue Jays also have the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.84 (11th in MLB) compared to 4.34 for the Cardinals (21st).
4:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-170, 7.5)
The White Sox (58-51) stole last night’s series opener 6-1, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the White Sox start righty Jordan Hicks (1-1, 3.19 ERA) and the Rays (64-45) go with fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (9-5, 3.07 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -160 home favorite and Chicago a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays in bounce back spot, driving Tampa Bay up from -160 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are 40-17 (70%) at home and 29-11 (73%) as a home favorite, both of which are the best records in MLB.
Tampa Bay is hitting .262 against righties (3rd in MLB) compared to .240 for the White Sox (18th).
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-110, 6.5) at Chicago Cubs
The Yankees (62-48) won yesterday’s Interleague series opener 2-0, coming through as +145 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees go with lefty Max Fried (4-3, 3.23 ERA) and the Cubs (62-48) tap fellow southpaw David Peterson (6-7, 5.80 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and Chicago a +105 home dog.
The public can’t believe the line is so short and 71% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back the Yankees.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen New York fall from -125 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Cubs, as the line has moved toward Chicago (+105 to -110) despite being the unpopular side. In other words, smart Cubs money has driven this game down to a pick’em even though the public is hammering New York.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are only receiving 29% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
Chicago is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, as the Cubs are receiving less than one third of moneyline bets in one of the most heavily bet night games.
Peterson has pitched well recently, allowing only 3 earned runs over 17.1 innings pitched in his last three starts (1.56 ERA).
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .248 with a .339 OBP and 564 runs scored compared to New York hitting .232 with a .311 OBP and 508 runs scored.
The Cubs are hitting .266 against lefties, 3rd best in MLB. The Yankees are hitting .237 against lefties (19th).
