The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* On LCS Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 32-8-1 for +23.15 units, an ROI of 57.9%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

* Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-86 on run lines (-35.80 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at CLE)

Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 28-22 to the Under for +4.20 units
* TAMPA BAY: 21-16-1 to the Under for +3.35 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Line angles
In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 59-68 for -25.09 units (ROI: -19.8%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at CLE)

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 80-58 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 8.1%) and 71-67 on run lines (+13.84 units, ROI: 10%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 56-70 SU (-39.60 units, ROI: -31.4%) and 40-86 on run lines (-35.80 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a 52-54 SU (+9.45 units, ROI: 8.9%) surge in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-106 vs TB)

Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 116-111-3, and Overs have produced a return of +19.39 units, an ROI of 8.5%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards UNDER’s in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

LCS Round angles
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 50-47 SU (+15.91 units, ROI: 16.4%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-106 vs TB)

– Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 43-66 SU (-27.74 units, ROI: -25.4%).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at CLE)

–  Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 27-18 SU (+16.11 units, ROI: -35.8%) and 31-14 RL (+9.25 units, ROI: 20.6%) run since ’03 in the LCS round.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 12-30 SU (-24.00 units, ROI: -57.1%) & 13-29 (-21.05 units, ROI: -50.1%) on run lines since 2005
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY

–  On game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 32-8-1 for +23.15 units, an ROI of 57.9%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (9-5, +5.92 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-106 vs TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2336-2922 (44.4%) for -267.02 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 690-690 for +11.66 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND -106 (+11 diff)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(915) TAMPA BAY (102-66) at (916) CLEVELAND (90-80)
Trend: Nick Martinez has a 4.39 ERA vs Cleveland in his career (across eight appearances)
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at CLE)
Trend: CLE is 39-17 (+11.12 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs TB)
Trend: Under the total is 59-46-2 (+8.40 units) when CLE faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Series #2: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Under the total is on 19-4-1 (82.6%, +14.60 units) run in Guardians-Rays h2h series (5.25 runs per game in these 24 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 63.5%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CLE (o/u at 6.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (17-14, -2.39 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at CLE)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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