Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Over the total is 27-9 (+17.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 36 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CHC (o/u at 8)
* Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 471-494 but for +32.27 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-158 vs BAL)
Trend: PHI is 30-2 (+26.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs MIA)
* NY METS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Washington: 14-22 (38.9%) record for -17.29 units, ROI: -48%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-119 vs SD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 195-149 for +7.62 units and an ROI of +2.2% after a 40-26, +10.59 unit run out of the break.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-106 at PIT)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 73-115 for -46.94 units and an ROI of -25%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 128-180 start for -13.86 units. After losing about 23.5 units over the last nine weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI GAME 1 (+105 vs STL), ATHLETICS (+165 at KC)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 69-39 for -17.76 units, ROI -16.4%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-245 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 266-308 for -5.99 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 75-62, +28.22 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+228 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+111 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 206-133
for +47.81 units, an ROI of +14.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-112 at CIN), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (-116 at CIN), ATLANTA (-124 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 63-89 for -25.66 units and a solid ROI of -16.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+147 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs MIA), NY METS (-119 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 129-146 for -1.65 units. However, it has lost -14.95 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+116 vs ATL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 518-415 for +42.47 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs MIA), NY METS (-119 vs SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 471-494 but for +32.27 units and an ROI of 3.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-158 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 253-190 for +21.62 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-112 at CIN), ATLANTA (-124 at MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 413-466 but for +90.25 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+147 at TB)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 157-197 for -38.24 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI GAME 1 (+105 vs STL), PITTSBURGH (-101 vs DET), MINNESOTA (+116 vs ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 447-389 but for -101.30 units and an ROI of -12.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-133 vs AZ), KANSAS CITY (-177 vs ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 466-415 record for +44.11 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-112 at CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 474-456 (51%) for +15.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-158 vs BAL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2197-2073 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.73 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-112 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+147 at TB), COLORADO (+226 vs LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2257-2833 (44.3%) for -262.45 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-245 at COL)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 148-107-17 (58%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR ST LOUIS GAME 1 at CIN (-112 CURRENTLY, o/u at 9.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 528-505 for +32.74 units, good for +3.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +226 (+54 diff), MIAMI +228 (+31), CINCINNATI GAME 2 +108 (+20), CINCINNATI GAME 1 +105 (+19), MINNESOTA +116 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON -133 (+29 diff)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 19-11-1 for +6.13 units and an ROI of 20.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LAD-COL OVER 10.5 (+1.1)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 114-88 for +15.35 units and an ROI of 7.6%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SD-NYM UNDER 8 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) ST LOUIS (63-61) at (904) CINCINNATI (59-64) (DH Game #2)
Trend: STL is 41-33 (+11.71 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 2 (-116 at CIN)
(905) MIAMI (64-61) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (67-58)
Trend: PHI is 30-2 (+26.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-247 vs MIA)
(911) BALTIMORE (61-63) at (912) TAMPA BAY (74-49)
Trend: BAL is 16-4 (+13.00 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+147 at TB)
Trend: TB is 53-40 (+26.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs BAL)
(913) ATHLETICS (49-75) at (914) KANSAS CITY (51-74)
Trend: KC is 21-33 (-16.54 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs ATH)
(915) DETROIT (60-64) at (916) PITTSBURGH (61-65)
Trend: Over the total is 41-21-1 (+17.90 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PIT (o/u at 8)
(917) ARIZONA (66-59) at (918) BOSTON (66-58)
Trend: AZ is 20-9 (+13.03 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+124 at BOS)
(919) ATLANTA (74-50) at (920) MINNESOTA (60-65)
Trend: MIN is 12-4 (+10.12 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+116 vs ATL)
(921) CHICAGO-AL (65-58) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (72-53)
Trend: Over the total is 27-9 (+17.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 36 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CHC (o/u at 8)
Trend: CHC is 40-19 (+12.36 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-161 vs CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-119 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-260 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-106 at PIT), ARIZONA (+124 at BOS), ATLANTA (-124 at MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-119 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATH-KC (o/u at 9), LAD-COL (o/u at 10.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 11-25 (30.6%) -14.08 units, ROI: -39.1%
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at CHC)
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 14-22 (38.9%) -17.29 units, ROI: -48%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-119 vs SD)
ATHLETICS
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 16-22 (42.1%) -7.20 units, ROI: -18.9%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+165 at KC)
