Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 11 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-160, 7.5)
The Orioles (61-63) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-5 as +145 road dogs, taking the second game 4-3 in extra innings as +140 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 10-2 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Brandon Young (9-3, 3.33 ERA) and the Rays (74-49) turn to lefty Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.09 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -155 home favorite and Baltimore a +135 road dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the wood with the Rays to earn a win and avoid the sweep, pushing Tampa Bay up from -155 to -160, with some shops touching as high as -165.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
The Rays are 50-29 (58%) with a 15% ROI against below .500 teams, the most profitable team in MLB against losing opponents.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are 4-1 in McClanahan’s last five starts, with the lefty posting an ERA of 2.49 across 25.1 innings pitched. He is 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA at home.
Tampa Bay is 41-21 (66%) at home, the best home record in MLB.
7:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-110, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Tigers (60-64) just got swept by the White Sox, losing yesterday’s series finale 7-5 as -115 home favorites. On the other hand, the Pirates (61-65) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-3 as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Tigers start lefty Framber Valdez (7-8, 4.26 ERA) and the Pirates send out righty Carmen Mlodzinski (6-5, 3.79 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +100 home dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Tigers.
However, despite receiving 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Detroit fall from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Pirates, as the line has moved in favor of Pittsburgh (+100 to -110) despite being the unpopular play. Essentially, smart Pirates money has pushed this game down to a virtual pick’em.
At Circa, Pittsburgh is receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .257 with 633 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .242 with 565 runs scored.
Pittsburgh is hitting .272 at home, tied with the Rockies for the best home batting average in MLB. The Pirates are also hitting .245 against lefties (10th best in MLB).
Valdez has posted a 4.98 ERA in night games compared to 2.74 during the day.
The Pirates are 32-31 at home. The Tigers are 28-33 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-135, 9)
The Diamondbacks (66-59) just took two of three against the Braves but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-3 as +110 road dogs. Conversely, the Red Sox (66-58) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-3 as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Diamondbacks start lefty Mitch Bratt (1-1, 3.74 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with lefty Alec Gamboa (0-0, 1.59 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -150 home favorite and Arizona a +130 road dog.
The public is happy to lay the wood with the Red Sox at Fenway, as Boston is receiving 63% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Boston fall from -150 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arizona, as the line has moved toward the Diamondbacks (+130 to +120) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are only receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and whopping 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 168-110 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Sweet spot dogs priced between +120 to +150 are 259-300 (46%) but have produced a 7% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
When the line moves in their favor, the Diamondbacks have gone 39-27 (59%) with a 9% ROI this season, the 4th best line move team in MLB.
Arizona offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Bratt has pitched well in two August starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 13 innings pitched (1.38 ERA). He has posted a 2.10 ERA in night games compared to 9.00 during the day.
