Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 24, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
TEXAS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. LA Angels: 9-29 (24.3%) record for -19.44 units, ROI: -51.2%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+120 at CWS)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 31-12 (+20.99 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PIT)
Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 48-27 (+21.82 units, ROI: 29.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 56-48 for -7.71 units for an ROI of -7.4%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-154 at SF)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 77-118 for -45.30 units and an ROI of -23.2%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+147 vs CLE)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 131-192 start for -21.89 after losing about 32 units over the last ten weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+169 at WSH), ATHLETICS (+142 vs MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 268-325 for -22.42 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 77-78, +11.77 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+143 vs CIN)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 224-144 for +53.77 units, an ROI of +14.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PIT), TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET), BOSTON (-124 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-201 start for -37.87 units (ROI -10.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 71-92 for -20.69 units and a solid ROI of -12.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ATHLETICS (+142 vs MIN)
3-games – MIAMI (+115 vs BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 135-156 for -0.41 units. However, it has lost -13.71 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+115 vs TB), COLORADO (+169 at WSH), PITTSBURGH (+101 at SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 524-417 for +46.47 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-124 at MIA), MIAMI (+115 vs BOS), CLEVELAND (-158 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 257-191 for +24.57 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-124 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 158-199 for -39.27 units and an ROI of -11% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+115 vs BOS), SEATTLE (+101 vs PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 467-418 record for +42.11 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-158 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-139 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2204-2084 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.41 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-139 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,269-2,852 (44.3%) for -265.41 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+169 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-153 at ATH), PITTSBURGH (-105 at SD)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 360-318 (53.1%) for +25.06 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+101 vs PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 332-341 run (+14.02 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+115 vs TB), WASHINGTON (-182 vs COL), SAN FRANCISCO (+143 vs CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 48-27 (+21.82 units, ROI: 29.1%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 554-537 for +27.41 units, good for +2.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +130 (+25 diff), MIAMI +115 (+23), ATHLETICS +142 (+22), SAN FRANCISCO +143 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -108 (+39 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -129 (+34)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) COLORADO (50-80) at (952) WASHINGTON (61-71)
Trend: Over the total is 9-4-1 (+4.70 units) with starter Cade Cavalli at home since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-WSH (o/u at 8)
(953) CHICAGO-NL (75-56) at (954) ARIZONA (69-62)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 14-2 (+11.97 units) when he starts on the road vs NL West opponents within line range of +125 or better in last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-139 at AZ)
(955) PITTSBURGH (63-69) at (956) SAN DIEGO (71-60)
Trend: Over the total is 19-6 (+12.40 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Under the total is 23-12 (+9.95 units) when starter Robbie Ray is favored since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: PIT is 12-29 (-22.57 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 31-12 (+20.99 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs PIT)
(957) CINCINNATI (62-69) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (52-78)
Trend: Under the total is 38-26-8 (+9.40 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SF (o/u at 7)
(959) TAMPA BAY (77-53) at (960) DETROIT (61-69)
Trend: TB is 49-29 (+14.42 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-124 at DET)
(961) TEXAS (65-66) at (962) CHICAGO-AL (68-62)
Trend: TEX is 1-10 (-9.32 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+120 at CWS)
(963) CLEVELAND (65-66) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-79)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5-1 (+8.45 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LAA (o/u at 7.5)
(965) MINNESOTA (63-68) at (966) ATHLETICS (51-80)
Trend: Over the total is 39-20-6 (+17.00 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 11)
(967) BOSTON (71-59) at (968) MIAMI (67-64)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 15-9 (+7.52 units) in his last 24 road night game starts against opponents with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-124 at MIA)
Trend: Under the total is 31-17-2 (+12.20 units) when starter Sandy Alcantara is at HOME and faces opponents with a >= 0.500 win pct since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 7)
(969) PHILADELPHIA (73-58) at (970) SEATTLE (62-69)
Trend: Under the total is 44-17-3 (+25.70 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the ROAD and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SEA (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: PHI is 10-18 (-10.70 units) in road night games with lower totals (o/u <= 7.5) with starter Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2021 season
Trend: SEA is 34-25 (+14.70 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+101 vs PHI)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Underdogs are 17-12 (58.6%, +7.12 units) in the last 29 of the AZ-CHC head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 24.6%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+130 vs CHC)
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Home teams are 24-8 (75%, +14.91 units) in the last 32 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 46.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+147 vs CLE)
Series #35: Texas at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: TEXAS is 16-4 (80%, +9.85 units) in their last 20 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 49.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+120 at CWS)
Series #36: Minnesota at Athletics, Mon 8/24-Wed 8/26
Trend: Favorites are on a 22-6 (78.6%, +11.89 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 42.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-153 at ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-124 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-AZ (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 20-19 (51.3%) +8.42 units, ROI: 21.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+112 vs BOS)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 9-29 (24.3%) -19.44 units, ROI: -51.2%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+120 at CWS)
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