Today we kick off a new week with a 10 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9:38 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-160, 7.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Guardians (65-66) just swept the Rockies, winning the series finale 7-2 as -160 road favorites. On the other hand, the Angels (52-79) just dropped two of three against the Rangers, losing the series finale 5-3 as +145 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Guardians send out lefty Parker Messick (9-8, 2.54 ERA) and the Angels start righty George Klassen (2-1, 3.74 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -155 road favorite and Los Angeles a +135 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Guardians, pushing Cleveland up from -155 to -160, with some shops touching as high as -170.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are taking in 85% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Messick has posted a 2.28 ERA in four August starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched. He has posted a 2.31 ERA on the road and a 2.30 ERA in night games compared to a 2.76 ERA at home and a 3.04 ERA in day games.
The Guardians are 34-32 (52%) on the road, 8th best in MLB. Conversely, the Angels are 29-36 (45%) at home, 4th worst in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-140, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Cubs (75-56) just dropped two of three against the Mariners but avoided the sweep, dominating the series finale 19-2 as -125 road favorites. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (69-62) just took two of three against the Reds, winning the series finale 5-3 as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs send out righty Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.58 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Merrill Kelly (8-11, 5.37 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 road favorite and Arizona a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying modest road chalk, pushing Chicago up from -130 to -140, with some shops touching as high as -145.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Chicago offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the better bats, posting a .339 OBP with 684 runs scored compared to the Diamondbacks posting a .318 OBP with 598 runs scored.
Chicago is 2-1 in Gausman’s three starts since being acquired at the Trade Deadline. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in two of those three starts.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kelly’s last five starts. He has posted an 8.24 ERA in four August starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-110, 7.5)
The Pirates (63-69) just got swept by the Dodgers, losing the series finale 4-0 as +250 road dogs. On the other hand, the Padres (71-60) just swept the Twins, winning the series finale 8-1 as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA) and the Padres counter with lefty Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Padres at home, as San Diego has crept up from a -105 home pick’em to a -110 or even -115 home favorite.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
San Diego offers betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Ray has pitched well as of late, allowing only 3 earned runs over 10 innings pitched (2.70 ERA) in his last two starts (both wins).
The Padres have the edge in the bullpen, sporting an ERA of 3.53 (5th best in MLB) compared to 4.17 for the Pirates (18th).
San Diego is 40-26 (61%) at home, 5th best in MLB. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has gone 29-37 (44%) on the road, 10th worst in MLB.
