Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Over the total is 17-4 (+12.60 units) when starter Michael Lorenzen is a home underdog of +105 or more since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-COL (o/u at 11.5)
* WASHINGTON letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Atlanta: 11-26 (27.8%) record for -17.03 units, ROI: -46%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-185 for +25.49 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at CHC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over profitability line at 183-138 for +6.64 units and an ROI of +2.1% after a 29-16, +9.61 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-102 at AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 68-102 for -38.17 units and an ROI of -22.5%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-132 vs TOR), TAMPA BAY (-174 at COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 121-159 start for -2.13 units. After losing about 12 units over the last seven weeks, this angle is finally back to the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI), TEXAS (-125 vs SF), COLORADO (+143 vs TB)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of the teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 60-34 for -15.48 units, ROI -16.5%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-217 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 233-279 for -20.74 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 41-32, +13.44 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-102 at AZ)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 195-120 for +52.37 units, an ROI of +16.6%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at CHC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-80 for -21.39 units and a solid ROI of -15.5%.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+143 vs TB)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 114-132 for -3.00 units. However, it has lost -16.30 units over the last four weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI), TEXAS (-125 vs SF)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 508-404 for +45.40 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-132 vs TOR), COLORADO (+143 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-102 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-185 for +25.49 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 153-195 for -40.50 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 437-382 but for -101.65 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (-150 vs PIT), TEXAS (-125 vs SF), ARIZONA (-118 vs SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2226-2793 (44.3%) for -258.83 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI), PITTSBURGH (+124 at MIL), TORONTO (+110 at HOU), TAMPA BAY (-174 at COL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 663-559 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +13.44 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-150 vs PIT), ARIZONA (-118 vs SD)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 110-159 SU (-24.64 units, ROI: -9.2%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+177 at NYY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-276 SU but for +44.37 units (ROI: 8.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+143 vs TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 322-334 run (+10.22 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI), TEXAS (-125 vs SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 258-173 in their last 431 tries (+36.95 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-132 vs TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 466-456 for +10.96 units, good for +1.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ST LOUIS +177 (+24 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +104 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE -150 (+17 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) WASHINGTON (55-58) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (59-53)
Trend: WSH is 38-18 (+15.51 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 29-9 (+14.68 units) as a home favorite within -150 to -198 line range with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs WSH)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (69-43) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (63-49)
Trend: Matthew Boyd’s teams are 13-1 (+10.95 units) in his last 14 home night starts since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs LAD)
(907) SAN DIEGO (58-54) at (908) ARIZONA (59-53)
Trend: Under the total is 21-9-1 (+11.70 units) when starter Michael King is an underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-AZ (o/u at 9)
(909) TORONTO (52-60) at (910) HOUSTON (58-55)
Trend: Over the total is 31-23-2 (+5.70 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-HOU (o/u at 9)
(911) ST LOUIS (55-57) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (63-49)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-1 (+9.70 units) with starter Michael McGreevy since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-NYY (o/u at 8)
Trend: NYY is 17-5 (+10.14 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-217 vs STL)
(913) SAN FRANCISCO (47-65) at (914) TEXAS (55-57)
Trend: SF is 21-38 (-15.09 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at TEX)
(915) TAMPA BAY (65-46) at (916) COLORADO (45-67)
Trend: TB is 47-37 (+23.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at COL)
Trend: Over the total is 17-4 (+12.60 units) when starter Michael Lorenzen is a home underdog of +105 or more since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-COL (o/u at 11.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-150 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-217 vs STL), TEXAS (-125 vs SF), TAMPA BAY (-174 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-132 vs TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-PHI (o/u at 9), SD-AZ (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 23-14 (62.2%) +9.91 units, ROI: 26.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-102 at AZ)
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 11-26 (27.8%) -17.03 units, ROI: -46%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+137 at PHI)
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