Today is the MLB Trade Deadline (6 p.m. ET) and bettors have a smaller than usual slate on tap with only 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8) at Chicago Cubs
The Dodgers (69-43) just got swept by the Red Sox, losing last night’s series finale 8-4 as -175 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (63-49) just dropped two of three against the Yankees, losing yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as a +100 home dog.
In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers have yet to officially announce their starting pitcher, although some reports have Los Angeles sending out lefty Justin Wrobleski (11-2, 2.88 ERA). On the other hand, the Cubs will start lefty Matthew Boyd (6-1, 3.43 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -130 road favorite and Chicago a +110 home dog.
The public says the mighty Dodgers just got swept and there’s no way they lose again tonight.
However, despite receiving 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Dodgers fall from -130 to -125 or even -120 across the market. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cubs, as the line has moved in their favor (+110 to +105) despite being the unpopular play.
The Cubs are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as they are only receiving 25% of moneyline bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the night.
At Circa, Chicago is only taking in 47% of moneyline bets but 87% of moneyline dollars, a sharp conrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 156-100 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their direction, the Cubs have gone 40-25 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Boyd posted a 1.67 ERA in five July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 32.1 innings pitched.
8:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Rays (65-46) just dropped two of three against the White Sox, losing yesterday’s series finale 9-1 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rockies (45-67) just swept the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rays tap lefty Ian Seymour (7-3, 4.37 ERA) and the Rockies go with righty Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.54 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -155 road favorite and Colorado a +135 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rays, driving Tampa Bay up from -155 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Interleague road favorites in the opening game of a new series, like the Rays here, are 31-18 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season.
When favored against a below .500 team, Tampa Bay has gone 32-17 (65%) with a 15% ROI this season, the best “chalk vs bad team” in MLB. When the line moves in their direction, the Rays are 47-29 (62%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Seymour is 5-0 with a 3.55 ERA in night games compared to 2-3 with a 5.13 ERA in day games.
On the other hand, Lorenzen is 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA at home this season.
The Rays have the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 4.02 (15th) compared to 4.98 for the Rockies (28th).
9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 9)
The Padres (58-54) just took three of four against the Giants, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as -130 home favorites. Similarly, the Diamondbacks (59-53) just won two of three against the Guardians but failed to complete the sweep, dropping yesterday’s series finale 5-0 as +160 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Michael King (6-7, 3.38 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a -110 pick’em on both sides, with a few books opening the Padres a slight -115 road favorite and the Diamondbacks a -105 home dog.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take. However, despite this roughly 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line move in favor of Arizona, pushing the Diamondbacks up to -115 or even -120 at some shops.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the home team.
At DraftKings, Arizona is taking in 49% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Snakes are receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Snakes.
Home favorites with a winning record receiving line movement in their direction who failed to make the playoffs the previous season, like the Diamondbacks here, are 64-41 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 156-100 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Arizona has the better bats, hitting .241 with 508 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .235 with 472 runs scored.
The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Pfaadt’s last six starts. He posted a 1.88 ERA in five July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched.
Arizona is 31-22 at home. San Diego is 26-29 on the road.
