Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 12-0 (+12.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with a >= 0.570 win pct in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7)
* LCS Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 7-27 (-16.8 units, ROI: -49.4%) on run lines
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is on a 17-3-1 (85%, +13.60 units) run in the Guardians-Rays series (5.09 runs per game in these 21 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 26-21 to the Under for +3.25 units
* TAMPA BAY: 19-15-1 to the Under for +2.4 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)
* MILWAUKEE: 25-9-1 to the Under for +15.1 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7)
Line angles
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 59-67 for -23.79 units (ROI: -18.9%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 96-90 SU (-31.74 units, ROI: -17.1%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 79-58 SU (+10.03 units,
ROI: 7.3%) and 70-67 on run lines (+12.84 units, ROI: 9.4%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 100-89 on run lines (+25.32 units, ROI: 13.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CLE)
Stats from last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 55-68 SU (-37.79 units, ROI: -30.7%) and 40-83 on run lines (-32.80 units, ROI: -26.7%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 21-6 SU (+15.66 units, ROI: 58%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 vs LAD)
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last 114 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 59-65 SU (-30.8 units, ROI: -24.8%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in ’23! However, they are 12-4 for +6.7 units since 2024.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 112-109-3, and Overs have produced a return of +17.61 units, an ROI of 8%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7), CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)
LCS Round angles
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 62-25 (71.4%) for +21.07 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.2%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
– Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 42-64 SU (-25.93 units, ROI: -24.5%).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL)
– Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 14-7 SU (+4.99 units, ROI: 23.8%) surge since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
– Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-9 SU (+6.36 units, ROI: 26.5%). However, both lost last year.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 vs LAD)
– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-17 SU (-11.34 units, ROI: -45.4%) and 6-19 (-15.8, ROI: -63.2%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
– Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in a LCS series have gone just 5-13 SU (-9.4 units, ROI: -52.2%) since 2008.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL)
– Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 7-27 (-16.8 units, ROI: -49.4%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (8-5, +0.39 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (6-4, +2.85 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 vs LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results showed a record of 87-112 for -25.54 units and an ROI of -12.8% (2-3, -0.78 units in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,335-2,921 (44.4%) for -267.17 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL), CLEVELAND (+143 at TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 59-26 SU for +23.53 units (ROI: 27.7%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 690-688 for +14.59 units, good for +1.1% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS -136 (+15 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) CLEVELAND (88-79) at (904) TAMPA BAY (101-64)
Trend: Foster Griffin’s teams are 12-5 (+9.71 units) when he starts as a plus-money underdog since the beginning of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+143 at TB)
Trend: CLE is 38-16 (+12.09 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at TB)
Trend: TB is 32-17 (+14.16 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 14-7 (+6.25 units) when TB is a home night favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the beginning of the 2021 season
Trend: Under the total is 5-0-1 (+5.00 units) when starter Drew Rasmussen faces Cleveland in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)
(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (103-64) at (906) MILWAUKEE (107-60)
Trend: LAD is 25-7 (+15.12 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: LAD is 12-3 (+6.20 units) in day games with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is a perfect 12-0 (+12.00 units) with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the road facing opponents with
a >= 0.570 win pct in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7)
Trend: MIL was 2-0 (+2.69 units) this season with starter Logan Henderson versus LAD (0.75 ERA and 5 HA across 12 IP)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 vs LAD)
Trend: MIL is 16-6 (+7.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Under the total is 7-1 (87.5%, +5.95 units) in the last eight of the Dodgers-Brewers set at American Family Field
– The ROI on this trend is 70.7%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7)
Series #2: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Trend: Under the total is on a 17-3-1 (85%, +13.60 units) run in the Guardians-Rays series (5.09 runs per game in these 21 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (16-9, +3.80 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-136 at MIL), TAMPA BAY (-174 vs CLE)
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