The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* LCS Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 17-5 outright (+10.88 units, ROI: 49.5%) and on run lines (+15.95 units, ROI: 72.5%)
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY

Trend: Under the total is on a 20-5-1 (80%, +14.55 units) run in the Guardians-Rays series (5.38 runs per game in these 26 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 58.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)

Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 29-23 to the Under for +4.15 units
* TAMPA BAY: 22-17-1 to the Under for +3.30 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)

Line angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 98-93 SU (-34.63 units, ROI: -18.1%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-151 vs CLE)

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 80-59 SU (+10.15 units, ROI:
8.1%) and 71-68 on run lines (+11.90 units, ROI: 8.6%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY

Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 46-73 SU (-15.68 units, ROI: -13.2%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+125 at TB)

Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 117-112-3, and Overs have produced a return of +19.27 units, an ROI of 8.4%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)

LCS Round angles
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 62-28 (71.4%) for +16.18 units since 2000, an ROI of 18%!
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-151 vs CLE)

–  Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 50-49 (+13.87 units, ROI: 14%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+125 at TB)

–  Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 44-66 SU (-26.74 units, ROI: -24.3%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+125 at TB)

–  Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 17-5 outright (+10.88 units, ROI: 49.5%) and on run lines (+15.95 units, ROI: 72.5%)
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (9-7, +3.88 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+125 at TB)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For ‘26, they went 192-235 for -57.88 units (ROI -13.6%) (1-2, -1.28 units in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-151 vs CLE)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading road teams that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,337-2,922 (44.4%) for -266.02 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+125 at TB)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(925) CLEVELAND (90-82) at (926) TAMPA BAY (104-66)
Trend: CLE is 39-19 (+7.42 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at TB)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 20-4 (+14.26 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL teams since the beginning of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-151 vs CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 4-0 when starter Freddy Peralta faces CLE in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)

Series #2: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Trend: Under the total is on 20-5-1 (80%, +14.55 units) run in Guardians-Rays h2h series (5.38 runs per game in these 26 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 58.2%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 6.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (19-14, -0.39 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-151 vs CLE)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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