Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 20-6 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 56.2%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+105 vs NYY)
* Since the start of the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record for the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 426-317 for +48.54 units (ROI: 6.5%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
* Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 39-80 on run lines (-31.35 units, ROI: -26.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-1.5 at NYY)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7-3 to the Over +3.68 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Line angles
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 57-66 for -24.53 units (ROI: -19.9%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-123 at TB)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 94-87 SU (-29.10 units, ROI: -16.1%)
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 78-56 SU (+11.33 units, ROI: 7.9%) and 69-65 on run lines (+14.66 units, ROI: 10.9%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 42-46 SU (-26.33 units, ROI: -29.9%) since ’13.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
Stats from last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 54-65 SU (-34.21 units, ROI: -28.7%) and 39-80 on run lines (-31.35 units, ROI: -26.3%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES
– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 20-6 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 56.2%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs NYY)
– Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 43-68 SU (-14.47 units, ROI: -13%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at CLE)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 108-103-2, and Overs have produced a return of +20.15 units, an ROI of 9.5%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5), NYY-TB (o/u at 6.5)
Divisional Round angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 72-52 SU (+3.34 units, ROI: 2.7%) and 63-61 on run lines (+9.35 units, ROI: 7.5%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
– In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams just above the profitability line at 219-178 for +0.13 units, but at +0.03% ROI, still WAY better than the average loss.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (5-2, +1.97 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-123 at TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The ’26 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss. (2-3, -0.73 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results showed a record of 87-112 for -25.54 units and a solid ROI of -12.8% (1-2, -0.76 units in the playoffs).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,334-2,920 (44.4%) for -266.91 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-123 at TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 687-687 for +12.72 units, good for +0.9% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND -149 (+14 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(929) CHICAGO-AL (87-78) at (930) CLEVELAND (85-78)
Trend: Over the total has converted in 21 of the last 22 Chicago White Sox games when they are playing with at least one day of rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: CLE is 45-61 (-11.38 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs CWS)
Trend: CLE has a 2-5 record with starter Gavin Williams against CWS in his career (4.72 ERA in these seven appearances)
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
(931) NEW YORK-AL (95-69) at (932) TAMPA BAY (99-64)
Trend: Under the total is 45-34-3 (+7.60 units) in NYY road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TB (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-18 (-12.09 units) in his last 34 September/October starts
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+105 vs NYY)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: CLEVELAND is 11-4 (73.3%, +4.72 units) in their last 15 games hosting divisional rival CWS
– The ROI on this trend is 31.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
Series #3: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Trend: Home teams are 10-4 (71.4%, +5.34 units) in the Yankees-Rays AL East rivalry this season
– The ROI on this trend is 38.1%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (9-6, +1.28 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-123 at TB)
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