Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 483-430 record for +44.95 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-108 at BAL), MINNESOTA (-121 at SF)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: DETROIT -135 vs WSH (simulations have line at DET -161)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 215-171 for +3.75 units (ROI: 1%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-135 vs WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 153-241 start for -40.15 units (-10.2% ROI) after losing about 50 units over the last three months.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+101 vs MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 318-384 for -23.47 units, ROI -3.2%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-108 at BAL)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 256-181 for +42.19 units, an ROI of +9.7%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-121 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 165-191 for +0.64 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 vs TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 vs MIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 268-198 for +27.44 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-121 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 467-397 but for -91.51 units and an ROI of -10.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-135 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 483-430 record for +44.95 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-108 at BAL), MINNESOTA (-121 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 692-578 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.78 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 vs TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 vs MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 653-654 for +8.46 units, good for +0.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -135 (+26 diff), MINNESOTA -121 (+15)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) TORONTO (77-79) at (952) BALTIMORE (75-81)
Trend: Shane Baz’s teams have a 6-1 record when he faces Toronto in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-112 vs TOR)
(953) WASHINGTON (73-83) at (954) DETROIT (73-83)
Trend: WSH is 48-30 (+9.51 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at DET)
(955) MINNESOTA (73-83) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (64-92)
Trend: Over the total is 47-24-7 (+20.60 units) in MIN ROAD games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SF (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: SF is 35-59 (-10.69 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+101 vs MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games in the 2023-2025 seasons, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-135 vs WSH), MINNESOTA (-121 at SF)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, September 22)
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