Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 174-93 SU (+43.82 units, ROI: 16.4%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-171 at AZ)
Trend: Over the total is 16-6 (+9.25 units) when Chris Sale’s teams are shorter road favorites (-111 to -175 line range) since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 166-171 (-76.40 units, ROI: -22.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 at KC)
Trend: COL is 13-39 (-16.90 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+138 at STL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 191-141 for +11.62 units and an ROI of +3.5% after a 37-19, +14.59 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+146 at MIA), TORONTO (+149 at PHI), HOUSTON (+108 at SD)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 49-44 for -8.90 units for an ROI of -9.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS (-140 vs BAL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 72-109 for -40.76 units and an ROI of -22.5%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+112 at PIT)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 64-36 for -15.93 units, ROI -15.9%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 29-18 start for -12.16 units, and an ROI of -25.9%!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 245-288 for -11.51 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 54-41, +22.68 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+126 vs ATL), LA ANGELS (+146 at MIA), TORONTO (+149 at PHI), NY METS (+112 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+116 vs CLE), BALTIMORE (+131 at TEX), HOUSTON (+108 at SD), TAMPA BAY (+105 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 197-122 for +51.99 units, an ROI of +16.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-112 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 144-179 start for -28.03 units (ROI -8.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 59-84 for -24.31 units and a solid ROI of -17%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (+126 at MIL)
3-games – TEXAS (-140 vs BAL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 118-143 for -9.92 units. However, it has lost -23.22 units over the last five weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-156 vs LAA), PITTSBURGH (-120 vs NYM), COLORADO (+138 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2186-2064 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -264.49 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2238-2808 (44.4%) for -257.09 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-136 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+219 at BOS), BALTIMORE (+136 at TEX), COLORADO (+138 at STL), TAMPA BAY (+105 at SEA), DETROIT (-112 at SF)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 174-93 SU (+43.82 units, ROI: 16.4%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-171 at AZ)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 44-111 skid (-42.11 units, ROI -27.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+219 at BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 79-154 skid (-43.47 units, ROI: -18.7%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+219 at BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 106-195 (-69.12 units, ROI: -23%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+219 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-171 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 47-80 in their last 127 tries (-15.18 units, ROI: -12%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-171 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 68-52-8 (56.7%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-AZ (o/u at 8.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Road teams on 5+ game losing streaks who just lost as favorites but are favored again have gone 34-15 SU (+12.97 units, ROI: 26.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-171 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 325-337 run (+10.79 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-156 vs LAA), PITTSBURGH (-120 vs NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 207-162 (+22.18 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 262-174 in their last 436 tries (+39.39 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 50-12 SU (+18.94 units, ROI: 30.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-237 vs ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #9:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks who are coming off scoring 5+ runs have trended Over the total when playing in less-competitive (-215 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) day games, going 38-21 (64.4%) to the Over since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-BOS (o/u at 9)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 166-171 (-76.40 units, ROI: -22.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-162 at KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 491-477 for +19.12 units, good for +2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATHLETICS +219 (+30 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +116 (+30), TORONTO +149 (+12), WASHINGTON +131 (+12), SAN FRANCISCO +104 (+12), ARIZONA +159 (+11), LA ANGELS +146 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH -120 (+41 diff), ST LOUIS -148 (+27), MILWAUKEE -136 (+20), SEATTLE -112 (+16)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 113-87 for +15.50 units and an ROI of 7.8%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NYM-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (51-66) at (952) PITTSBURGH (57-61)
Trend: Over the total is 38-20 (+16.00 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-PIT (o/u at 9)
(953) CINCINNATI (56-59) at (954) WASHINGTON (57-61)
Trend: Under the total is 12-5 (+6.50 units) in the competitive -140 to +140 line range with starter Chase Burns in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(955) COLORADO (45-71) at (956) ST LOUIS (58-58)
Trend: COL is 13-39 (-16.90 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+138 at STL)
(959) ATHLETICS (45-71) at (960) BOSTON (64-51)
Trend: ATH is 12-25 (-14.43 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+219 at BOS)
(961) CLEVELAND (58-59) at (962) CHICAGO-AL (59-56)
Trend: CWS is 7-3 (+4.00 units) at home with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+116 vs CLE)
(965) TAMPA BAY (69-46) at (966) SEATTLE (56-61)
Trend: SEA is 39-67 (-20.49 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 vs TB)
(967) ATLANTA (70-46) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (65-51)
Trend: Over the total is 16-6 (+9.25 units) when Chris Sale’s teams are shorter road favorites (-111 to -175 line range) since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYY (o/u at 7.5)
(971) TORONTO (55-62) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (62-55)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 38-19 (+12.35 units) in his last 57 starts on the road vs NL opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+149 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 30-9 (+15.68 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-160 vs TOR)
(973) CHICAGO-NL (68-49) at (974) KANSAS CITY (48-69)
Trend: Under the total is 37-24-3 (+10.60 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-KC (o/u at 9.5)
(975) MINNESOTA (58-59) at (976) MILWAUKEE (72-44)
Trend: Over the total is 17-8-2 (+8.05 units) when starter Taj Bradley faces NL opponents since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-MIL (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 8/7-Sun 8/9
Trend: Favorites are 22-7 (75.9%, +10.24 units) in the last 29 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 35.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs NYM)
Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Fri 8/7-Sun 8/9
Trend: Underdogs (and pick’ems) are 23-16 (59%, +9.32 units) in the last 39 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 23.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+136 at TEX)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-KC
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, August 14)
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