MLB Best Bets Today August 8
It is a bit of a late start for a Saturday with no games until 3:05 p.m. ET, but that just means we should be in for a fun evening. The Braves and Yankees are set to get it started with two of the best pitchers of this generation in Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole and then we’ll move on from there with a couple of 4 p.m. tilts before heading to the 6 p.m. hour. For those with obligations early in the day, today’s the day for it, as you can crack a cold one of your choice and settle in for some baseball tonight.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 8:
Reds vs. Nationals Prediction
Picks: Nationals +131; Andrew Alvarez (WAS) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-139)
Chase Burns gets the call for the Reds today and is an ample road favorite, even though run support looks tough to come by. The recently-minted millionaire has been stellar this season with a 2.35 ERA, 3.19 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP, but there are some concerns lurking beneath the surface.
He allowed five runs, albeit just one earned, against Cleveland two starts ago and had his lowest fastball velocity of the season last time out against the Pirates. It didn’t really affect him, as he threw six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts, but he also had a start right before the All-Star Break with six walks. In three starts post-All-Star Break, Burns has averaged 96.9, 96.7, and 96.2 mph with the heat. He didn’t have a start lower than 97.1 up to that point and even had several starts averaging 98+.
In light of the Hunter Greene injury, coupled with a lost season, I have to think that the Reds are both scaling Burns back and also that the additional burden of being an ace at 23 with 162 MLB innings to his name are going to make for a toned-down second half. Burns threw 119.1 innings across four levels last season. He’s thrown 118.2 innings at the MLB level alone this season, so he’ll set a career-high tonight with at least three outs. Even though the Pirates only scored one run last start, Burns allowed his highest exit velocity on fastballs of the season at 96.8 mph.
The Reds have not seen many lefties in the second half and haven’t performed well against the ones that they have seen. They only have 95 PA to this point, slashing .220/.326/.305 with a 32.6% K%. That is 20 fewer PA against southpaws than anybody else. (Milwaukee is second, and they’ve also been awful in that split).
Alvarez has had a hard time working deep into games lately and has even been used as a reliever a few times. But, he’s coming off of 6.1 innings last time out against the Phillies, so hopefully he can push it to that point or further today.
The Nationals have slashed .266/.351/.474 against RHP in the second half with a .357 wOBA and a 125 wRC+, so hopefully they can get to Burns and Alvarez can give us enough innings to push the K prop Over.
Cubs vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Royals 1st 5 +0.5 (-110)
How a pitcher performs in his first start with a new team is definitely a mixed bag. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to have no idea what to expect from Clay Holmes today for the Cubs and that creates a little bit of betting value on the underdog.
Holmes has only made three rehab starts after not pitching since mid-May due to a lower leg injury. He allowed six runs on 12 hits with an 8/4 K/BB ratio over one start at Triple-A, one at A-ball, and one at High-A. All three of those came in the Mets organization, so this is his first start in any fashion for the Cubs. Acquiring teams usually want to introduce some sorts of changes to a pitcher’s usage or arsenal because they’ve picked up on something that they can fix or better optimize. In this case, Holmes has barely even pitched lately, let alone work out any of the new wrinkles that the Cubs want to implement.
We’ll see if Seth Lugo can bounce back from an ugly effort at Coors Field, as he allowed five runs on five hits and walked five batters over five innings. He had allowed seven earned runs in his four starts prior to that over 23 innings of work, so the hope would be that we see that version of him today. He’s a very, very BABIP-dependent pitcher, but, while the Cubs have mauled lefties in the second half thus far, they’re a more manageable 10th in wRC+ at 106, so 6% above league average. A 10.7% BB% is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Lugo’s BB% is up a bit this season, but he only has two starts since May 7 with more than two walks.
If DraftKings didn’t have Royals 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 juiced up to -154, I’d look to go that route, but I think there’s more equity in this one.
