AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 373-187 (66.6%) for +51.03 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-143 vs KC)

Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 22-5 (81.5%, +15.67 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022. The ROI on this trend is 58%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+119 at ATH)

* MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 71-42 SU for +13.75 units (ROI: 12.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-131 at LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record.
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a 65-44 start for +3.57 units and an ROI of +3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 at TB), NY METS (-131 at LAA)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 16-29 for -16.54 units and an ROI of -36.8%.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 at DET)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 64-40 start for +3.65 units and an ROI of +3.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-136 at MIN), BOSTON (-136 vs HOU), ATLANTA (-226 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-186 vs CWS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 31-40 for +6.88 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+184 vs ATL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 21-14, but for -14.64 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-226 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 61-72 for -4.83 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+119 at ATH), CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT), TEXAS (+113 at DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 30-42 start for -8.64 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 15-20 for -2.75 units and an ROI of 7.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (+113 at MIA), ST LOUIS (+113 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks 
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 32-38 for -1.37 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+104 vs NYM)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2030-1926 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.19 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs CIN)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2034-2601 (43.9%) for -267.49 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4117-3578 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.54 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, MIAMI, ST LOUIS, COLORADO, ATHLETICS, SEATTLE

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 373-187 (66.6%) for +51.03 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-143 vs KC)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 89-135 SU (-25.14 units, ROI: -11.2%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+113 at DET), KANSAS CITY (+119 at SEA)

Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as DAY game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as UNDER the total is 140-100-17 (58.3%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ATH (o/u at 10.5)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 71-42 SU for +13.75 units (ROI: 12.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-131 at LAA)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 489-556 SU but for +71.84 units (ROI: 6.9%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-177 SU for +39.78 units in the last 343 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+135 at CHC), CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+144 at NYY), HOUSTON (+113 at BOS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 74-150 skid (-44.68 units, ROI: -19.9%).
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+109 vs NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 96-180 (-63.66 units, ROI: -23.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+109 vs NYM)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 285-298 run (+9.29 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 at TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 246-162 in their last 408 tries (+38.37 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 vs LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 34-70 (-9.26 units, ROI: -8.9%) in their last 104 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 151-148 (-57.25 units, ROI: -19.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+113 vs LAD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TAMPA BAY -105 (+19 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -136 (+26 diff), SAN DIEGO -186 (+21), SEATTLE -143 (+17), ATLANTA -226 (+16), CHICAGO CUBS -163 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-WSH OVER 7.5 (+0.9), LAD-STL OVER 8.5 (+0.8), CIN-PIT OVER 8 (+0.8), TOR-MIN OVER 8 (+0.7), ATL-COL OVER 10 (+0.7), AZ-CHC OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), CWS-SD UNDER 8 (-0.7)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) ARIZONA (16-15) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (20-12)
Trend: Over the total is 14-4-3 (+9.50 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 2.67 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-CHC (o/u at 7)
Trend: CHC is 5-14 (-11.22 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs AZ)
Trend: CHC is 31-13 (+12.83 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-171 vs AZ)

(955) MILWAUKEE (17-14) at (956) WASHINGTON (15-18)
Trend: WSH is 10-2 (+7.71 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs MIL)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3-1 (+6.70 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 7.5)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (13-19) at (958) MIAMI (15-17)
Trend: PHI is 1-4 (-2.95 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+113 at MIA)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (20-12) at (960) ST LOUIS (19-13)
Trend: STL is 17-8 (+5.62 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs LAD)

(963) BALTIMORE (15-17) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (21-11)
Trend: BAL is 0-6 (-7.10 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+144 at NYY)

(967) CLEVELAND (17-16) at (968) ATHLETICS (17-15)
Trend: Over the total is 7-1-1 (+5.90 units) when ATH is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-ATH (o/u at 10.5)

(969) HOUSTON (12-21) at (970) BOSTON (13-19)
Trend: HOU is 4-13 (-10.25 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+113 at BOS)

(973) KANSAS CITY (13-19) at (974) SEATTLE (16-17)
Trend: KC is 2-10 (-7.61 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-149 vs KC)

(979) NEW YORK-NL (11-21) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-21)
Trend: NYM is 8-15 (-17.05 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-131 at LAA)

Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: Underdogs are 17-10 (63%, +9.12 units) in the last 27 of the AZ-CHC series.
– The ROI on this trend is 33.8%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+135 at CHC)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CINCINNATI is 7-18 (28%, -12.30 units) in the last 25 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -49.2%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+113 at PIT)

Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: ATLANTA has won 21 of the last 27 games against Colorado (77.8%, +4.87 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 18%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-226 at COL)

Series #31: Cleveland at Athletics, Fri 5/1-Sun 5/3
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 22-5 (81.5%, +15.67 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
– The ROI on this trend is 58%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+119 at ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. 
– Majority handle bettors backing home favorites in the months of May, June and July games of 2024-25 were 656-480 (57.7%) but for -137.9 units and an ROI of -12.1%, a full 3.6% worse than the normal return.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, ATHLETICS, BOSTON, DETROIT, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-BOS, ATL-COL

    Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

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