Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-165, 8)
The Red Sox (67-58) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 11-1, easily cashing as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (66-60) send out righty Merrill Kelly (8-10, 5.11 ERA) and the Red Sox tap lefty Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -160 home favorite and Arizona a +140 road dog.
Sharps are going back to the well with the Red Sox at Fenway, pushing Boston up from -160 to -165, with some shops touching as high as -175.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 169-112 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Boston offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Red Sox 7-2 in Suarez’s last nine starts. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all of those starts.
Kelly has gotten knocked around in three August starts (6.89 ERA), giving up 12 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
Boston has the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.95 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.19 ERA (18th).
7:40 p.m. ET: Athletics at Kansas City Royals (-155, 9)
The Royals (52-74) won last night’s series opener 9-5, taking care of business as -180 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (49-76) hand the ball to righty Jack Perkins (2-9, 7.27 ERA) and the Royals counter with lefty Daniel Lynch IV (4-4, 2.88 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -130 home favorite and the Athletics a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Royals to earn another win at home, steaming Kansas City up from -130 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Royals are taking in roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, Kansas City is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a heavy, one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are below .500 and both missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the home favorite coming off a win has gone 49-28 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Kansas City offers additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Lynch has posted a 2.05 ERA at home compared to a 3.80 ERA on the road.
On the other hand, the Athletics are 0-10 in Perkins’ last ten starts. He has posted an 11.48 ERA in three August starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. He is 1-7 with a 7.80 ERA in night games this season.
8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Dodgers (75-51) took last night’s series opener 11-5, cruising as massive -285 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers send out lefty Eric Lauer (7-6, 4.67 ERA) and the Rockies (50-75) turn to righty Ryan Feltner (5-6, 5.59 ERA).
This line opened with with Los Angeles listed as a -175 road favorite and Colorado a +155 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the hefty chalk and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, pushing Los Angeles up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are taking in roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public.
Road favorites off a win priced -150 or higher receiving at least 15-cents of steam in their favor, like the Dodgers here, are 24-8 (75%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Los Angeles has cleaned up against bad teams this season, going 42-19 (69%) with a 3% ROI against sub .500 opponents, including 20-8 (71%) with a 13% ROI on the road.
Lauer is 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA in night games compared to 1-4 with a 7.84 ERA during the day.
The Dodgers have the better bullpen sporting a team ERA of 4.02 (15th) compared to 4.90 for the Rockies (28th).
Los Angeles is 38-25 on the road and 60-35 in night games. On the other hand, Colorado is 27-33 at home and 34-48 in night games.
The Dodgers are 8-3 against the Rockies this season.
