MLB Best Bets Today August 18
We’re back to a full menu of options for Tuesday’s MLB card, as all 30 teams take the field. All of the games are late as well, so those who have daytime obligations, like that pesky job, for example, have plenty of time to decide what the best bets are for this evening. Our first game is Yankees vs. Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET and our last first pitch is fairly early at 8:40 p.m. ET between the Dodgers and Rockies at Coors Field. A compact slate, but one with some good betting opportunities.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 18:
Giants vs. Guardians Prediction
Pick: Over 8 (-110)
If the Guardians can’t hit Carson Whisenhunt today, just fold the franchise. The 25-year-old southpaw enters this game with a 6.11 ERA, 5.78 xERA, and a 5.40 FIP over his six starts at the MLB level. While he had great success limiting homers in the minors, he also pitched to a 10.5% BB%, which has followed him to the big leagues. He has a 13.8% BB% with just a 16.9% K% over 28 innings.
Whisenhunt has been tortured by righties, which is convenient for Cleveland because they employ platoons more than any other team in baseball, so they’ll run out at least six or seven righties, if not more today. Righties are slashing .307/.380/.523 against Whisenhunt with a .389 wOBA. Furthermore, in three road starts, the left-hander has allowed 12 runs in 11.2 innings of work with a .353/.443/.510 slash against. Small sample sizes, but very favorable for Cleveland’s offensive profile.
In two starts with the Guardians, Foster Griffin has allowed eight runs on 11 hits in just nine innings. Only six of the runs are earned, but still. He’s given up three homers, been a super-extreme fly ball guy, and only has a 5.3% SwStr% with a 25.3% Chase Rate. The Giants have absolutely taken their lumps against lefties, ranking dead last in wOBA at .245 in the second half, but their .238 BABIP is better than only one team (Cardinals) and nearly 35 points behind the next-lowest team (Yankees). Against a pitch-to-contact guy like Griffin, maybe they find some success.
If not against him, maybe against the Cleveland bullpen, which has been quite poor in the second half with a 4.71 ERA over 99.1 innings. The Giants also have a reliever ERA north of 4, along with their xERA and FIP. I’ll take a shot at runs here.
Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Cardinals -114
The Cardinals were one out away from sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader with the Reds, as Oliver Marmol very aggressively managed Game 1 to win 2-1 and then tried to push Peter Strzelecki maybe just a little bit too far in the nightcap. He didn’t want to use any of the Game 1 relief arms and it may have cost him a win, but perhaps it sets his team up better today during an eight-game week.
I’ve been extremely skeptical of Kyle Leahy all season long, but he has been excellent of late. The reliever-turned-starter has a 1.52 ERA with a 3.47 xERA and a 2.60 FIP over his last nine starts with 46 strikeouts against just nine walks. He’s given up a good amount of hard contact, but it’s mostly been on the ground and the Cardinals are a spectacular defensive ballclub.
With a 3.38 ERA and a 5.06 xERA, I can see why people would want to fade him, but spikes in his K% in July and August are notable, along with a major decrease in walks. He’s only walked two batters in the second half after struggling a bit with that earlier in the season. His 10.2% Barrel% for the season is also another culprit in terms of the high xERA, but he’s only allowed a 6.2% Barrel% in his last seven starts since the beginning of July, so he’s really improved in that area as well.
The Reds will send out southpaw Andrew Abbott. He comes in with a 4.13 ERA, 4.75 xERA, and a 4.65 FIP over his 133 innings of work. While Leahy has thrived in his last nine starts, Abbott has a 4.66 ERA with a 4.38 xERA and a 4.41 FIP, as he’s allowed 3+ runs in six of those nine starts. He only has a 17.9% K% with an 11.8% BB% in that span. Fortunately for him, his contact management numbers are okay because he’s created a lot of potential problems for himself.
Abbott is more likely to create his own problems today and the Reds, while slightly above average on defense, aren’t as good in the field as the Cardinals are. With Marmol’s reliever usage yesterday, his leverage arms are available for tonight’s game. So are Cincinnati’s, but I like the Cardinals pen a lot more.
Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Tigers +131
Keider Montero isn’t going to win the AL MVP, but what he has done this season for the Tigers may very well make him the Most Valuable Player in Detroit. The 26-year-old swingman has taken a massive leap forward this season when the team needed it most. With a variety of pitching injuries, including the absence of Tarik Skubal, Montero has eaten up some very valuable innings. He comes into this one with a 3.22 ERA, 3.48 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP over 128.2 frames.
I understand the skepticism about Montero, who only has 86 strikeouts out of 515 batters faced. His .225 BABIP looks unsustainable. But, he’s a guy who does a good job of limiting hard contact and doesn’t have any noticeable platoon splits. Lefties are batting .211/.271/.345 with a .270 wOBA and righties are batting .206/.247/.336 with a .256 wOBA, so he’s been effective both ways. While Montero only has seven strikeouts this month out of 72 batters, he did strike out over a batter per inning in July, so it’s in there if he needs it.
Montero also has a 15.6% IFFB%. Pop ups are effectively strikeouts, so that’s a really useful attribute for him, especially with a line drive rate of just 13.1%. For whatever reason, hitters don’t really center the ball against him and it works.
Montero has a tough assignment today matching wits with Braxton Ashcraft, who is coming off of one of the most dominant starts of the season. He threw a complete game with 10 strikeouts in just 85 pitches last time out against the Marlins. While the stat sheet shows 13 runs of support, it was a 0-0 game through four innings and a 2-0 game after five. The Pirates added on eight insurance runs late.
But Ashcraft is leveling up here, as the Tigers have the best offense against righties in the second half with a .365 wOBA and a 135 wRC+. They are slashing .291/.362/.480 with a sub 19% K%. They’ve really swung the bats well in this split and much better than the Pirates, who rank 25th in wOBA against RHP in the second half at .296 with a 26.1% K%.
The Tigers look fine from a relief standpoint today, so I think they’re worthy of the underdog shot.
