WNBA Picks
No article yesterday since there was only one WNBA game, so we’re back Tuesday with a four-game slate featuring the Toronto Tempo hosting the Indiana Fever, the Connecticut Sun hosting the LA Sparks, the Atlanta Dream visiting the Las Vegas Aces, and the New York Liberty visiting the Chicago Sky. Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday, August 18th.
Toronto Tempo (+10.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 190.5
Not that Toronto has been great this year, but they’ve been notably worse lately. They’ve been 3.5 points worse than their season average over the last three games, and have allowed 101 points per game over their last nine. Indiana is rounding into playoff form, playing 2.5 points better than their season average and have won four straight games – three of which were against playoff teams. TSI projects Indiana -7 with a total of 186. I don’t really like anything about this game, because Toronto has been dreadful in its last three home games, playing 13 points worse than their season average, and Indiana is coming off a tough OT win at Atlanta. I definitely don’t want to take an Under with the way Toronto’s defense is playing. This game is a pass for me.
Connecticut Sun (+1.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 169.5
Both teams are trending the wrong way; Connecticut has been four points below its season average over the last three games, while LA has been two points worse than its season average in that span. Connecticut is only averaging 71 points per game over the last four games, three of which were at home. LA has only averaged 79 points per game over their last four, the last two of which were on the road. TSI projects Sun -3 with a total of 166 here, and I like the Under here based on the numbers I just mentioned. My recent games formula would project the total around 158 here, so let’s grab this 169.5 – and I see some rogue 170s out there as well.
Bet: Under 169.5 or better
Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 176.5
These teams are trending up from their season averages, with Vegas playing a point better over their last three games and Atlanta playing eight points above theirs despite an OT loss to Indiana at home last game. Atlanta is only giving up 81 points per game over its last five games, and Vegas is only averaging 82 over its last six games. TSI projects Aces -3 with a total of 173.5, and I like the Under here for the reasons I outlined. Not to mention, since August 12th, the WNBA average game has only totaled 166 points on average.
Bet: Under 176.5 (Play to 175)
Chicago Sky (+4.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 179.5
Since Sydney Taylor’s injury, Chicago has fallen off a cliff, playing nine points below their season average over the last three games. New York has been winning, but is playing 4.5 points below their season average with Satou Sabally away from the team in concussion protocol. New York is averaging 96 points per game over its last ten games, and Chicago is averaging just 82 over its last four. TSI projects Liberty -10 with a total of 177, and I’m going to back the Liberty here until Chicago shows me any sign of life – beating Seattle by two points does not qualify.
Bet: Liberty -4.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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