Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 35-20 SU (+7.2 units, ROI: 13.1%) surge, including 5-3 the last two years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY), MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Trend: TB is 1-10 (-9.73 units) with starter Drew Rasmussen in home night games versus opponents with a >= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY)
Trend: Over the total has converted in 21 straight Chicago White Sox games when they are playing with at least one day of rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* MILWAUKEE: 11-20 SU -9.98 units
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
* MILWAUKEE: 21-9 to the Under +11.1 units
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIL (o/u at 7)
* CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7-2 to the Over +4.9 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 92-86 SU (-29.61 units, ROI: -16.6%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY)
Series wins status
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 97-85 on run lines (+26.71 units, ROI: 14.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs ATL), TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs NYY), MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs SD)
Trends based upon regular season records
– In the last 110 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 56-64 SU (-32.8 units, ROI: -27.3%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they were 9-3 for +4.7 units in 2024 & 2025 as the Dodgers rolled through weaker opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
– In the last six playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-28 SU (-22.7 units, ROI: -51.6%) and 12-32 on run lines (-23.1 units, ROI: -52.5%) in playoff games. The record of these teams in 2023…1-9 SU and 0-10 RL’s.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, MILWAUKEE
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 108-98-1, and Overs have produced a return of +25.66 units, an ROI of 12.5%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER IN ALL FOUR GAMES
Divisional Round angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 68-50 SU (+2.96 units, ROI: 2.6%) and 62-56 on run lines (+13.35 units, ROI: 11.3%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, MILWAUKEE
– Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 35-20 SU (+7.2 units, ROI: 13.1%) surge, including 5-3 the last two years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY), MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (3-1, +1.46 units in the playoffs).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL), MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record was 116-62 for -22.06 units, ROI -12.4% (1-0, +1.00 unit in the playoffs).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL), MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results showed a record of 87-112 for -25.54 units and a solid ROI of -12.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at CLE), NY YANKEES (+112 at TB), SAN DIEGO (+172 at MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2255-2139 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -283.60 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+112 at TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 56-26 SU for +20.53 units (ROI: 25%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 282-183 in their last 465 tries (+46.02 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 37-78 (-13.16 units, ROI: -11.4%) in their last 115 tries.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+172 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 170-176 (-80.33 units, ROI: -23.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 684-686 for +10.47 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Matches: LA DODGERS -212 (+14 diff), CLEVELAND -149 (+12)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 32-15-1 for +14.55 units and an ROI of 31%.
Ratings Match: ATL-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(917) CHICAGO-AL (86-78) at (918) CLEVELAND (85-77)
Trend: Over the total has converted in 21 straight Chicago White Sox games when they are playing with at least one day of rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 6.5)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (95-68) at (920) TAMPA BAY (98-64)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are just 13-12 (-6.44 units) in his last 25 starts versus Tampa Bay
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+112 at TB)
Trend: TB is 1-10 (-9.73 units) with starter Drew Rasmussen in home night games versus opponents with a >= 0.540 win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY)
Trend: Under the total is 24-16-2 (+6.40 units) when TB is a home favorite of -115 or higher with starter Drew Rasmussen since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYY (o/u at 7)
(921) SAN DIEGO (93-71) at (922) MILWAUKEE (103-59)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 6-1 when he starts versus Milwaukee in his career
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 14-5 (+12.26 units) in his last 19 road night starts
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+171 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is the most profitable team in MLB in night games this season (68-35, +21.51 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
(923) ATLANTA (96-69) at (924) LOS ANGELES-NL (100-62)
Trend: LAD is just 22-19 (-12.47 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #1: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: CLEVELAND is 11-3 (78.6%, +6.21 units) in their last 14 games hosting divisional rival CWS
– The ROI on this trend is 44.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs CWS)
Series #2: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: Atlanta is 8-2 (80%, +7.97 units) in their last 10 games versus LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 79.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+173 at LAD)
Series #3: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Trend: Home teams went 9-4 (69.2%, +4.34 units) in the Yankees-Rays AL East rivalry this season
– The ROI on this trend is 33.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY)
Series #4: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Home teams are on a 7-2 (77.8%, +4.38 units) surge in the Padres-Brewers set
– The ROI on this trend is 48.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 at CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (5-4, +0.17 units in 2026).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-212 vs ATL), TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYY), MILWAUKEE (-211 vs SD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 23-18 (56.1%) +3.02 units, ROI: 7.4%
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (+173 at LAD)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 21-20 (51.2%) -12.79 units, ROI: -31.2%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+112 at TB)
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