MLB Best Bets Today October 3
The Division Series Round begins today, as all eight teams take the field. We’ll see an off day tomorrow for the AL to separate the two leagues for TV purposes, but everybody gets going this week in hopes of moving a win closer to the Championship Series Round. It will be interesting to see how the four home teams do today. The bye is definitely better than not having one, but it can be very tough to stay sharp not playing for several days after playing pretty much every day for the last six months. The road teams had to keep the pedal to the metal, so they might have an edge in today’s action.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 3:
White Sox vs. Guardians (-149, 6.5)
1 p.m. ET
White Sox-Guardians Series Preview
Apologies for the short lead time on this game. Fortunately, I don’t have a bet on the game to share, but I can pass along a few thoughts. Parker Messick goes for Cleveland and Hagen Smith will open a bullpen game for the White Sox. Expect Will Venable to try and mix and match lefties and righties to try and throw a wrench into Stephen Vogt’s plan to try and get as many platoon advantages as possible.
The left-handed Smith has very good stuff and pitched to a 1.29 ERA over 28 innings during the regular season. He was used for three shutout innings in the series against the Astros, so he made his debut and was not overwhelmed at all by the moment. I would anticipate that the White Sox will be looking for three or so innings out of him here today, which would mean pushing through the lineup at least once.
Messick is more of a traditional starter in this spot, though Vogt is a smart manager and understands the context of the playoffs. That said, even though we’d normally see him aggressively make moves, Messick is one of the three best arms on the team, so he may push him further out of necessity. The biggest weakness for the Guardians is their middle relief, so limiting the exposure of that group will be a goal.
I do think a live betting opportunity could pop up if Messick is struggling or runs up a high pitch count and some of the lesser relief arms are called into action.
Braves vs. Dodgers (-212, 8.5)
4 p.m. ET
I thought there was a chance that the Dodgers would roll with Yoshinobu Yamamoto here, but they’re going to go with Tarik Skubal instead. Either option would have been a good one to say the least. Atlanta’s starting pitcher was still TBD as of 11:30 a.m. ET, so it’s hard to handicap this game.
From my series preview, I’m on Dodgers -1.5 games, so that’s more or less my Game 1 bet. It would be much more difficult to win this series 3-1 after losing Game 1. So, I’ll be rooting for the Dodgers at over a $2 favorite. We did see them play really well in September, essentially flipping the switch to get going in the right direction heading into the postseason. That’s precisely what this team can do.
The total of 8.5 is pretty lofty in a Skubal start, but it is extremely hot in Los Angeles for a day game on the West Coast, so the weather could definitely help the ball carry in this one. I am curious to see how the Braves try to set this thing up and where they deploy the higher-leverage guys. Once again, live betting is a possibility here in this one, especially if Skubal starts slow and maybe gives up a run before the game really gets going.
Yankees vs. Rays (-135, 7)
6:30 p.m. ET
Finally, a much more traditional setup for a game, as we get Gerrit Cole vs. Drew Rasmussen in this one. The Yankees disposed of the Red Sox in two games, so they were able to push Cole into the Game 1 start here. He’s not the Cole of old, but he’s still an above average starting pitcher.
Cole made 22 starts over 127 innings, posting a 3.61 ERA with a 3.77 xERA and a 3.93 FIP. A big bump in home runs is certainly a concern for him, especially given the run-scoring environment of the postseason, but the Rays are not a big power team. Junior Caminero is a big power hitter, but the rest of the team combined for just 127 homers, so Cole should be able to navigate this lineup fairly well. Over his last four starts, Cole allowed nine home runs. Tropicana Field is a pretty good pitcher’s park, though, and I do think that might be able to help him neutralize his worst characteristic.
On September 6, the Padres hit four solo homers off of him. The Mets hit three HR off of him six days later. As long as Cole isn’t walking people, the homers aren’t going to be quite as big of a problem. He’s still a pitcher who gave up fewer than a hit per inning. With the safety net of the New York offense, those solo round-trippers are something that his team can overcome, so it’s really just a matter of making opponents hit their way on base and for Cole to get timely strikeouts if he does have runners on.
Rasmussen had an excellent season, throwing 172 innings with a 2.67 ERA, 3.05 xERA, and a 2.82 FIP. His second half was even better, posting a 1.86 ERA over 72.2 innings of work. He struck out 72 and only walked 15. So, this should be a game where we don’t see a whole lot of free passes. The Rays are one of the lowest teams in the league in the pitches per plate appearance department and Rasmussen is a guy who forces hitters to put the ball in play early in counts.
I think the biggest thing for Rasmussen about his second-half success is that he only allowed two home runs. He allowed 12 homers in the first half. New York’s biggest offensive attribute is being able to slug and Rasmussen is a hard guy to slug against. He allowed six runs in one of his four starts against the Yankees and one run over the other three starts.
The Under 7 is definitely of interest to me here, as both starters have high levels of pitch efficiency, which should allow both managers to be able to shorten the exposure of their respective bullpens. Cole and Rasmussen are guys plenty capable of giving 6+ innings, even in the playoff environment where starters rarely do that. We may see a few homers here and there, but with the low walk rates for both starters and well below a hit per inning, I don’t think big innings are in the forecast here.
Pick: Under 7 (-114)
Padres vs. Brewers (-219, 7)
8:30 p.m. ET
Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers are heavy favorites in Game 1 here, as Robbie Ray does look like a pretty good matchup for the Milwaukee offense. While the Brewers don’t hit a lot of home runs and that is something that has been an issue for Ray over the course of his career, he also pitches himself into a lot of deep counts. The Brewers were the best team in baseball at drawing walks during the regular season and Ray had a 12% BB%.
The other thing about Ray this season is that his K% dropped rather significantly. He had a sub-20% K% for the first time in a full season. That’s not an ideal scenario given that he at least used to offset some of the free passes with strikeouts. That was not the case this season and he was remarkably lucky to have a 3.59 ERA, as evidenced by his 4.80 xERA and his 4.69 FIP. His ratios were even worse with the Padres and he had a 5.02 ERA over his 43 innings with the Friars.
It’s a big price to lay here on Milwaukee, but you can see how it got to that point. Ray is a major regression candidate and the Brewers match up well against him. Plus, you’ve got the NL Cy Young Award winner on the bump for the home team here, as Miz finished the regular season with an ERA under 2.00 and struck out 252 batters in just 174.2 innings. His 1.80 ERA came with a 2.12 xERA and a 2.17 FIP. Just stellar numbers.
I do wonder if the Padres, who have been arguably the best offense in baseball in the second half and have a lot of good contact bats, can scratch out more success than the average team against Miz, but it’s such a big ask, especially for a guy who throws as hard as he does. We may even see him add a tick given that it’s the playoffs and the adrenaline is flowing more than usual. Miz did throw seven shutout with 10 strikeouts in his only start against the Padres, so we don’t really have a big sample size and the Padres were not the offense in May that they are now.
But, I’m looking the prop and derivative route here rather than lay the big number. Ray Over 1.5 Walks Allowed at -140 is probably not juiced enough here. His Outs Recorded prop is just 11.5, so I don’t want to invest in that one, but the Brewers are a highly disciplined lineup and that is such a great asset in this spot against Ray.
Second, I like the Brewers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +105. I expect Ray to struggle here, so that’s part of it. Also, I do wonder who the first relief arm Craig Stammen deploys will be. You can’t punt any game of a playoff series, and I’m not saying he’ll do that, but I do think he avoids burning high-leverage guys if he can help it. I don’t think we see Bradgley Rodriguez in the fourth like we did in Game 2 against the Cubs. I anticipate somebody further down the depth chart and further down the totem pole.
Picks: Robbie Ray (SD) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-140); Brewers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
