The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 179-96 SU (+44.35 units, ROI: 16.1%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at CIN)

Trend: KC is 3-15 (-11.11 units) as a road underdog with starter Noah Cameron since the beginning of the 2025 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 at PIT)

Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 24-6 (80%, +16.56 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022
– The ROI on this trend is 55.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-188 vs ATH)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are around the profitability line at 212-170 for +1.81 units (ROI: 0.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-126 vs PHI), WASHINGTON (-104 at STL), TORONTO (-109 at TEX), LA ANGELS (-111 vs MIN)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 92-136 for -47.49 units and an ROI of -20.8%!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+129 at TB)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 152-234 start for -34.38 units (-8.9% ROI) after losing about 44 units over the three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+104 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+311 at LAD), COLORADO (+128 vs SEA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 48-22 but for -5.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-404 vs SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 313-378 for -23.24 units, ROI -3.4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-104 at STL), BOSTON (+129 at TB), TORONTO (-109 at TEX), ATLANTA (+113 at HOU)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 251-181 for +37.19 units, an ROI of +8.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-126 vs PHI), LA ANGELS (-111 vs MIN), MILWAUKEE (-114 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-118 vs KC)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 163-187 for +2.20 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+155 at CLE), ST LOUIS (-115 vs WSH), ARIZONA (+122 vs NYY), COLORADO (+128 vs SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2242-2125 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -280.05 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+108 at CWS), WASHINGTON (-104 at STL), NY YANKEES (-148 at AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,313-2,903 (44.3%) for -275.62 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-109 at TEX), MIAMI (+131 at SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+311 at LAD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 691-576 (54.5%) record in
the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.78 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-114 vs MIN)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 404-203 (66.5%) for +60.74 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-404 vs SF)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 366-322 (53.2%) for +26.44 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs DET)

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 179-96 SU (+44.35 units, ROI: 16.1%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at CIN)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 207-245 SU record for +40.89 units and an ROI of 9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-102 at PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 342-351 run (+15.43 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+155 at CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 650-650 for +10.60 units, good for +0.8% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +311 (+80 diff), ATLANTA +113 (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY YANKEES -148 (+28 diff), PITTSBURGH -118 (+23), ST LOUIS -115 (+14), LA ANGELS -111 (+14), SAN DIEGO -159 (+13), SEATTLE -155 (+11), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -130 (+10)

Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 28-16-2 for +9.53 units and an ROI of 21.7%.
Ratings Matches: TOR-TEX OVER 7.5 (+1.0), MIL-BAL OVER 7.5 (+1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) PHILADELPHIA (85-69) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (70-84)
Trend: NYM is 10-4 (+5.52 units) at home with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-126 vs PHI)

(955) WASHINGTON (72-82) at (956) ST LOUIS (75-79)
Trend: WSH is 47-29 (+9.82 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at STL)

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (64-90) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (94-60)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 33-13 (+10.86 units) in his last 46 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-404 vs SF)

(961) BOSTON (84-70) at (962) TAMPA BAY (93-60)
Trend: TB is 53-26 (+14.99 units) in home games this season
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 18-4 (+12.26 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-157 vs BOS)

(969) MINNESOTA (72-82) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-95)
Trend: MIN is 24-9 (+9.03 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend: LAA is 12-19 (-12.43 units) as a home favorite/pick ’em with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-105 at LAA)
Trend: Over the total is 46-24-6 (+19.60 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAA (o/u at 7)
Trend: Under the total is 19-5-2 (+13.40 units), with starter Reid Detmers at home versus opponents with a losing record in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAA (o/u at 7)

(971) MILWAUKEE (96-58) at (972) BALTIMORE (75-79)
Trend: Under the total is 30-15-3 (+13.50 units) when MIL faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BAL (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 22-44 (-16.76 units) in his last 66 starts as an underdog within the -109 to +154 line range
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-106 vs MIL)

(973) KANSAS CITY (67-87) at (974) PITTSBURGH (77-77)
Trend: KC is 3-15 (-11.11 units) as a road underdog with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 at PIT)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.80 units) when KC is on the road and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-PIT (o/u at 8)
Trend: Over the total is 46-28-2 (+15.20 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-PIT (o/u at 8)

(977) NEW YORK-AL (89-64) at (978) ARIZONA (80-74)
Trend: Under the total is 38-25-4 (+10.50 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-AZ (o/u at 7.5)

(979) SEATTLE (72-82) at (980) COLORADO (56-98)
Trend: SEA is 29-50 (-22.25 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at COL)

Series #31: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 9/18-Sun 9/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 24-6 (80%, +16.56 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022
– The ROI on this trend is 55.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-188 vs ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-159 vs MIA), LA DODGERS (-417 vs SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BOSTON (+129 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at NYM), TORONTO (-109 at TEX), ATLANTA (+113 at HOU), WASHINGTON (-104 at STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-417 vs SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-114 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-118 vs KC), ATLANTA (+113 at HOU), NY YANKEES (-148 at AZ), SEATTLE (-156 at COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-114 vs MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-COL (o/u at 11)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, September 22)

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