Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 181-97 SU (+44.93 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 at ATH)
Trend: KC is 14-4 (+10.12 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-105 vs CLE)
In 2026, when SM Ratings simulations have an Under projection showing at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 31-14-1 for +14.7 units and an ROI of 32.7%.
Ratings Match: PIT-DET UNDER 9 (-1.0)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another GO AGAINST angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 101-141 for -44.76 units and an ROI of -18.5%!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-117 at MIA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 162-246 start for -32.92 units (-8.1% ROI) after losing about 45.5 units over the last three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+231 vs LAD), LA ANGELS (+134 at SEA), ATHLETICS (+133 vs HOU), CINCINNATI (+135 at TOR), COLORADO (+203 at CWS)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 120-63 for -19.92 units, ROI -10.9%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-251 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 51-22 but for -2.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-289 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 329-397 for -22.99 units, ROI -3.2%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-110 at WSH), MINNESOTA (+104 vs TEX), LA ANGELS (+134 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (+102 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-107 at PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 261-185 for +42.34 units, an ROI of +9.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-117 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-126 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (-114 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 184-225 start for -55.41 units (ROI -13.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 87-109 for -22.86 units and a solid ROI of -11.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – WASHINGTON (-110 vs NYM), ARIZONA (+104 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice FADE system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 171-194 for +4.54 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+231 vs LAD), COLORADO (+203 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-112 vs TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2250-2132 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -281.49 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-115 at KC), MINNESOTA (+104 vs TEX), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs CLE), ARIZONA (-101 at SD)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2328-2915 (44.4%) for -269.11 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-289 at SF), TEXAS (-126 at MIN), ATLANTA (-119 at MIA), COLORADO (+197 at CWS), TAMPA BAY (-109 at PHI)
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 697-580 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.63 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-110 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-120 vs AZ)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 181-97 SU (+44.93 units, ROI: 16.2%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 at ATH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 670-675 for +6.78 units, good for +0.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +203 (+35 diff), MINNESOTA +104 (+20), WASHINGTON -110 (+13), PITTSBURGH +102 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -163 (+38 diff), TORONTO -163 (+29), PHILADELPHIA -112 (+16), ATLANTA -117 (+14), SEATTLE -162 (+12)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the OVER or UNDER. On UNDER projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, UNDER’s are 31-14-1 for +14.7 units and an ROI of 32.7%.
Ratings Match: PIT-DET UNDER 9 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (98-62) at (902) SAN FRANCISCO (65-95)
Trend: SF is 23-38 (-15.61 units) in DAY games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+231 vs LAD)
(907) ST LOUIS (77-83) at (908) MILWAUKEE (101-59)
Trend: STL is 59-28 (+19.16 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIL)
(909) ARIZONA (86-74) at (910) SAN DIEGO (89-71)
Trend: UNDER the total is 44-31-4 (+9.90 units) in AZ ROAD games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 11-2 (+7.89 units) in his L13 starts vs Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
(911) TEXAS (79-81) at (912) MINNESOTA (76-84)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 25-7 (+18.45 units) when he starts in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 31-14 (+16.87 units) in his L45 DAY game starts
Trends Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-125 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 13-5 (+10.34 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at HOME with starter Bailey Ober in L4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+104 vs TEX)
(913) CLEVELAND (84-76) at (914) KANSAS CITY (68-92)
Trend: UNDER the total is 45-34 (+7.60 units) in CLE ROAD games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-KC (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: KC is 14-4 (+10.12 units) in HOME DIVISIONAL games with starter Michael Wacha since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-105 vs CLE)
(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (62-98) at (918) SEATTLE (74-86)
Trend: SEA is 46-85 (-32.02 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs LAA)
(919) HOUSTON (79-81) at (920) ATHLETICS (64-96)
Trend: OVER the total is 48-28-3 (+17.20 units) in ATH HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(921) PITTSBURGH (81-79) at (922) DETROIT (75-85)
Trend: Justin Verlander’s teams are 4-10 (-9.95 units) when he starts at HOME against NL opponents with a winning record in L6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-110 vs PIT)
(923) CINCINNATI (74-86) at (924) TORONTO (78-82)
Trend: OVER the total is 37-21-2 (+13.90 units) in CIN DAY games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-TOR (o/u at 8)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not TOO MANY of them hop on an UNDERDOG side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TORONTO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY
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