MLB Best Bets Today September 26
The penultimate day of the MLB regular season is here, as we have games today and tomorrow and that’s it. It’s hard to believe that the grind that started six months ago is coming to an end, but it is. I don’t really view the playoffs as a grind because every pitch is a heart attack waiting to happen. There’s nothing like playoff baseball. I’m glad my team will experience it. I hope yours is as well. If not, I hope you can get that experience next season.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 26:
The last two days, I’ve written about some individual player benchmarks to watch for. Yesterday, Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz stole their 30th bases. Nolan Arenado hit his 30th HR. We’ve got more things to watch for today.
- Hunter Goodman needs one HR for 40
- Rafael Devers needs three HR for 40; also needs two RBI for 100
- Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Jordan Walker need one HR for 30
- Bryce Harper, Christian Walker need two HR for 30
- Junior Caminero needs one RBI for 100
- Ben Rice, Brice Turang need three RBI for 100
- Nasim Nunez needs one SB for 50
- Fernando Tatis Jr. needs two SB for 40
- Jose Ramirez needs three SB for 40
- Josh Naylor needs one SB for 30
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction
Pick: Braves -117
We’ve got two Johnny Wholestaff situations here, as Brent Suter starts for the Braves and Jack Ralston starts for the Marlins. Presumably, Elieser Hernandez follows Suter and Bradley Blalock follows Ralston. Neither guy is particularly good, but I do give the nod to Hernandez slightly over Blalock. Also, the Braves are likely to use Robert Suarez, Dylan Lee, and Raisel Iglesias even if they don’t need them based on the game state.
Teams are plotting their course for the postseason and the Braves will play on Tuesday as the No. 3 seed. The last appearance for all three of those guys was on Wednesday, so I’m assuming manager Walt Weiss will want to get them some game action today. Didier Fuentes was brought in yesterday to keep a 1-0 game right there, but he gave up two runs on five hits after not having pitched since Tuesday. I’d expect Weiss to try and keep his main guys sharp.
Blalock has allowed five runs on nine hits in eight MLB innings this season. He’s pitched to a 5.56 ERA, 5.59 xERA, and a 5.43 FIP in Triple-A this season with 21 HR allowed in 110 innings. Given how the Braves got shut out yesterday, and had just one hit, I think they try to lock in today and get something positive rolling towards the postseason. Unless there are postseason implications today and tomorrow, a lot of these games will just be about who wants it more.
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Royals 1st 5 (-130)
The Guardians obviously want it more than the Royals here, and maybe they’ll be able to win the game late, but they virtually never hit Michael Wacha. Wacha’s arsenal neutralizes platoon advantages, meaning he gets lefties out at a much higher clip than righties normally do. The Guardians employ platoons more than any other team in baseball.
Wacha has faced Cleveland three times this season and allowed three runs on 11 hits over 22 innings with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. Wacha also has spectacular career numbers against Cleveland, as they’ve employed this platoon strategy for a long time. The Guardians are annually among the worst teams in baseball at hitting changeups and Wacha has been able to play off of that exceedingly well.
Tanner Bibee has a 4.35 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.60 FIP in his 182 innings of work. He’s got the lowest K% of his career and highest HR/9. He gave up six runs on 12 hits last time out and allowed five runs in each of his first two September starts. He’s simply not throwing the ball well right now, and, frankly, would not be a rotation option for me if it was my call next week.
The Royals are playing free and easy with nothing to worry about. The Guardians have to keep winning because the White Sox are playing the Rockies. We’ll see if Cleveland finds some more offensive magic, but if they do, I doubt it will be against Wacha.
Angels vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Ryan Johnson (LAA) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Seattle has really cut down on the strikeouts this season, but it hasn’t seemed to help them a ton offensively. Over the last 14 days, they only have an 18.9% K% against RHP. But, I’m expecting Johnson to leave it all out there in his final start and look for something to build on heading into next season.
He has gone Over this number in four straight starts and has been really effective since the early part of August, posting a 2.39 ERA. He does have a 4.42 xERA and a 4.51 FIP over those 49 innings, but he’s still a young kid learning how to pitch at this level. He has posted season-best 15.6% and 15.4% SwStr% in his last two starts, including one against the Mariners, where he had a 46.3% Chase Rate. He struck out seven in six innings in that one. We’ll see if he can duplicate that today.
