Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams are 6-17 (-19.76 units) in his last 23 road starts vs NL opponents
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+109 at SD)
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 401-202 (66.5%) for +59.45 units and an ROI of 9.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-167 vs SF)
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 338-346 run (+16.21 units, ROI: 2.4%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+109 vs BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 200-161 for -0.53 units.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+104 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 61-52 for -8.95 units for an ROI of -7.9%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS (-108 vs TB)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 85-128 for -46.98 units and an ROI of -22.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+108 vs BOS), HOUSTON (-112 vs AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 140-211 start for -28.04 units (-8% ROI) after losing about 37.75 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-126 at COL), ATHLETICS (+202 at SEA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 91-52 for -24.37 units, ROI -17%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-225 vs WSH), SEATTLE (-250 vs ATH), PITTSBURGH (-191 vs LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 35-25 start for -21.56 units, and an ROI of -35.9%!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-225 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 285-352 for -30.74 units, and comes off a rough two-and-a-half-week stretch, giving back over 20 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+135 at PHI), COLORADO (+104 vs STL), TORONTO (-110 at KC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 239-164 for +44.96 units, an ROI of +11.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-111 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-123 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-112 vs AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 76-98 for -22.2 units and a solid ROI of -12.8%.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+202 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 150-170 for +2.24 units. However, it has lost -11.02 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+157 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+108 vs BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 478-460 (51%) for +14.96 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-110 vs TOR)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,227-2,102 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.65 units. This represents an ROI of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-157 at CIN), TORONTO (-110 at KC), NY METS (-172 vs SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,292-2,878 (44.3%) for -273.10 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-131 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+157 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+102 at CWS), ARIZONA (-108 at HOU), NY YANKEES (+109 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 682-571 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.02 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+109 vs BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 401-202 (66.5%) for +59.45 units and an ROI of 9.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-167 vs SF)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 338-346 run (+16.21 units, ROI: 2.4%).
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+109 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 112-43 (+35.44 units, ROI: 22.9%) in their last 155 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TORONTO at KC (-110 CURRENTLY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 599-587 for +25.05 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATHLETICS +202 (+40 diff), COLORADO +104 (+25), WASHINGTON +183 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX -123 (+20 diff), CLEVELAND -157 (+19), MILWAUKEE -157 (+18), PITTSBURGH -191 (+15), NY METS -167 (+11), HOUSTON -112 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 121-97 for +11.90 units and an ROI of 5.5%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:=
Ratings Match: ATL-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN FRANCISCO (58-84) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (64-77)
Trend: SF is 31-51 (-8.07 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+138 at NYM)
(955) ATLANTA (84-57) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (79-62)
Trend: ATL is 18-6 (+9.15 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 46-12 (+21.17 units) as a home favorite of -162 or higher with starter Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs ATL)
(959) ST LOUIS (71-71) at (960) COLORADO (54-87)
Trend: Over the total is 12-4-2 (+7.30 units) in road games with starter Matthew Liberatore against opponents with a <= 0.480 win pct since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-COL (o/u at 11)
(961) WASHINGTON (67-76) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-57)
Trend: LAD is 25-45 (-25.45 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs WSH)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 48-15 (+12.67 units) when he starts as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-225 vs WSH)
(963) DETROIT (64-77) at (964) CLEVELAND (72-70)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-1 (+9.45 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 7)
(965) TAMPA BAY (84-57) at (966) TEXAS (70-72)
Trend: TEX is 7-15 (-9.97 units) in the last 22 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-108 vs TB)
(967) BOSTON (77-65) at (968) BALTIMORE (69-73)
Trend: BOS is 54-36 (+12.71 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-131 at BAL)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15-1 (+17.35 units) when Sonny Gray’s teams are in the -130 to -155 favorite line range since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-BAL (o/u at 8)
(971) MINNESOTA (67-74) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (74-67)
Trend: CWS is 9-4 (+5.17 units) at home with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-123 vs MIN)
(973) ATHLETICS (56-86) at (974) SEATTLE (66-76)
Trend: SEA is 42-72 (-21.81 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs ATH)
Trend: SEA is 7-2 (+3.45 units) in the last nine games vs the Athletics with starter George Kirby
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-250 vs ATH)
(975) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-88) at (976) PITTSBURGH (70-72)
Trend: Over the total is 43-25-2 (+15.50 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend: Over the total is 20-7 (+12.40 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-PIT (o/u at 7.5)
(977) NEW YORK-AL (80-61) at (978) SAN DIEGO (74-67)
Trend: Carlos Rodon’s teams are 6-17 (-19.76 units) in his last 23 road starts vs NL opponents
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+109 at SD)
Trend: Under the total is 24-12 (+10.95 units) when starter Robbie Ray is favored since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Fri 9/4-Sun 9/6
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 39-14 (73.6%, +21.80 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 41.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-157 at CIN)
Series #37: Tampa Bay at Texas, Thu 9/3-Sun 9/6
Trend: TEXAS is on a profitable 15-4 (78.9%, +12.55 units) run versus Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is 66.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-108 vs TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-191 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-225 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): MINNESOTA (+102 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-256 vs ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-191 vs LAA), ARIZONA (-108 at HOU), NY YANKEES (+109 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs ATL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, September 7)
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