Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Favorites are just 33-49 (40.2%, -37.01 units) in the L82 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -45.1%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-118 vs NYY)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-1 (+8.95 units) when KC is on the road and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, SMALLER FAVORITES in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 52-22 SU for +21.69 units (ROI: 29.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-175 vs MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 194-148 for +7.62 units and an ROI of +2.2% after a 40-26, +10.59 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-159 vs WSH), MINNESOTA (-103 vs PHI)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 73-114 for -45.94 units and an ROI of -24.6%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+102 vs KC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 127-179 start for -13.86 units. After losing about 23.5 units over the last eight-and-a-half weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+148 at NYM), PHILADELPHIA (-104 at MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 263-306 for -7.83 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 72-60, +26.36 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+110 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+103 at DET), MINNESOTA (-103 vs PHI), LA ANGELS (+102 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (+163 at LAD)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 204-130 for +49.48 units, an ROI of +14.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-124 vs AZ), MIAMI (-118 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL), HOUSTON (-118 vs SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 149-184 start for -27.47 units (ROI -8.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+131 at TB), ARIZONA (+115 at ATL), TORONTO (-118 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-104 at MIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 470-494 but for +31.17 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (+110 at TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 411-466 but for +87.40 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+116 at SF), MILWAUKEE (+163 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 172-70 for +15.30 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS vs STL (-174 CURRENTLY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 473-455 (51%) for +15.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-124 vs AZ), MINNESOTA (-103 vs PHI)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2195-2072 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.84 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-104 at MIN), SEATTLE (+110 at HOU), ARIZONA (+115 at ATL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2253-2833 (44.3%) for -266.71 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+110 at TOR), COLORADO (+116 at SF), SAN DIEGO (-105 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-109 at LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 670-565 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +13.30 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+102 vs BOS)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 112-163 SU (-25.52 units, ROI: -9.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+131 at TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 52-22 SU for +21.69 units (ROI: 29.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-175 vs MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 528-505 for +32.74 units, good for +3.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +102 (+28 diff), MINNESOTA -103 (+27), CINCINNATI +110 (+24), ST LOUIS +162 (+12), PITTSBURGH +102 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO -118 (+50 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -124 (+25), HOUSTON -118 (+23)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ARIZONA (66-58) at (952) ATLANTA (73-50)
Trend: Mike Soroka’s teams are 6-16 (-10.86 units) when he starts in the -120 to +115 line range in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+115 at ATL)
(953) WASHINGTON (60-65) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (55-69)
Trend: WSH is 40-22 (+12.01 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at NYM)
Trend: WSH is 10-26 (-10.68 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+148 at NYM)
Trend: NYM is 8-3 (+4.57 units) at home with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-160 vs WSH)
(955) MIAMI (63-61) at (956) CINCINNATI (59-63)
Trend: MIA is 4-11 (-10.19 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-118 at CIN)
(961) MILWAUKEE (76-48) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-50)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 12-6 (+8.88 units) when he starts against opponents with a >60% win pct in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-175 vs MIL)
(963) BALTIMORE (60-63) at (964) TAMPA BAY (74-48)
Trend: Under the total is 25-15 (+8.95 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 21-43 (-17.02 units) when he starts as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+131 at TB)
Trend: TB is 53-39 (+27.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs BAL)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 17-3 (+12.62 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-140 vs BAL)
(971) KANSAS CITY (50-74) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-75)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-1 (+8.95 units) when KC is on the road and faces opponents with a <= 0.540 win pct with starter
Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend: Under the total is 40-23-1 (+14.70 units) in LAA home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
(973) SEATTLE (58-66) at (974) HOUSTON (63-61)
Trend: SEA is 25-37 (-17.26 units) in ROAD games this season
Trend: SEA is 2-13 (-10.83 units) as a ROAD underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+110 at HOU)
Trend: HOU is 5-11 (-8.19 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-118 vs SEA)
(975) BOSTON (66-57) at (976) PITTSBURGH (60-65)
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 8-16 (-10.73 units) in his last 24 day game starts
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-109 at PIT)
Trend: Over the total is 40-21-1 (+16.90 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-PIT (o/u at 9)
(977) SAN DIEGO (66-58) at (978) CLEVELAND (60-64)
Trend: Casey Mize’s teams are 19-13 (+3.93 units) in his last 32 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-105 at CLE)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: Favorites are just 33-49 (40.2%, -37.01 units) in the last 82 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -45.1%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-118 vs NYY)
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 28-6 (82.4%, +15.19 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 44.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA (-103 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (+162 at CHC), ATHLETICS (+120 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-109 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (-105 at CLE), MINNESOTA (-103 vs PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-159 vs WSH), DETROIT (-111 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-176 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-ATL (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
