Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-110, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Pirates (60-65) took the opener 8-4, coming through as +105 home dogs. Then the Red Sox (66-57) bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as -120 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Red Sox hand the ball to lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-1, 3.30 ERA) and the Pirates turn to righty Lake Bachar (1-2, 3.97 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 home favorite and Boston a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Red Sox to earn a win and take the series, flipping Boston from a +100 road dog to a -110 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a hefty 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
Sunday road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more, like the Red Sox here, are 36-22 (62%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 91-54 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season. Sunday road favorites facing an opponent with a below .500 record are 35-19 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Boston is 5-1 in Sandoval’s six starts this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in five of his six starts as well. He has also posted a 2.93 ERA on the road compared to 3.68 at home.
3 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-175, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cubs (72-52) won the opener 3-0, taking care of business as -185 home favorites. Then the Cardinals (62-61) clawed back with an 8-4 win yesterday, cashing as +165 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals send out righty Hunter Dobbins (2-3, 3.40 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Edward Cabrera (5-4, 5.10 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -155 home favorite and St. Louis a +135 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Cubs at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -155 to -175.
At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor indicating slight public support but also a majority of sharp action.
When the line moves in their favor, the Cubs have gone 46-27 (63%) with an 11% ROI this season, the 3rd best “line move” team in MLB.
The Cubs are 29-22 (57%) off a loss this season, the 5th best “bounce back” record in MLB.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .249 with a .338 OBP and 641 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .239 with a .315 OBP and 537 runs scored.
The Cubs have the edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.85 (9th) compared to 4.27 for the Cardinals (20th).
4:07 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-110, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Royals (50-74) took the opener 7-6, coming through as a -110 road pick’em. Then the Angels (49-75) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, cashing as a -160 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Royals start lefty Noah Cameron (6-8, 4.45 ERA) and the Angels rebuttal with righty Ryan Johnson (2-6, 6.71 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -130 road favorite and Los Angeles a +110 home dog.
The public is all over the Royals laying modest chalk, as Kansas City is receiving 69% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Royals tumble from -130 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Angels as the line has moved in their favor (+110 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Angels are taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
The Angels offer correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Johnson has pitched well in two August starts (both wins), allowing only 2 earned runs in 9 innings pitched (2.00 ERA).
The Royals are 21-44 (32%) on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
