Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: NYY is 9-2 (+6.48 units) in road day games with starter Will Warren since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-101 at AZ)
Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 426-488 but for +85.85 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+128 at TB), ATLANTA (+128 at HOU)
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 692-576 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.78 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+134 vs CHC), COLORADO (+135 vs SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 65-56 for -9.48 units for an ROI of -7.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-161 at NYM), TEXAS (-185 vs TOR)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. For the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 92-137 for -48.49 units and an ROI of -21.2%!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+128 at TB)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a couple weeks left, they are now 153-236 start for -35.15 units (-9% ROI) after losing about 45 units over the three months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+200 at CLE), CINCINNATI (+134 vs CHC), WASHINGTON (+108 at STL), COLORADO (+135 vs SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+228 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 114-59 for -16.92 units, ROI -9.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-248 vs ATH), MILWAUKEE (-206 at BAL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 49-22 but for -4.73 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-286 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season has been slower than usual, 316-380 for -22.16 units, ROI -3.2%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (+133 vs PHI), BOSTON (+128 at TB), ATLANTA (+128 at HOU), TORONTO (+152 at TEX), LA ANGELS (-101 vs MIN), NY YANKEES (-101 at AZ)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 254-181 for +40.19 units, an ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-118 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 183-220 start for -50.65 units (ROI -12.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+108 at STL), TEXAS (-185 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 165-189 for +2.64 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+100 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+200 at CLE)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 491-511, but for +37.70 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+100 at PIT), ATHLETICS (+200 at CLE), ST LOUIS (-131 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 426-488 but for +85.85 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+128 at TB), ATLANTA (+128 at HOU)
*WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY at PIT (+100 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 174-72 for +13.42 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-286 vs SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2243-2127 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -281.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+133 vs PHI), CLEVELAND (-248 vs ATH), LA DODGERS (-286 vs SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,313-2,906 (44.3%) for -278.68 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-102 at CWS), BOSTON (+128 at TB), TORONTO (+149 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (-206 at BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 692-576 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.78 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+134 vs CHC), COLORADO (+135 vs SEA)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 207-246 SU record for +39.88 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+200 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 653-654 for +8.46 units, good for +0.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +128 (+25 diff), TORONTO +152 (+23), ATHLETICS +200 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH -120 (+27 diff), ST LOUIS -131 (+18)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 125-102 for +10.25 units and an ROI of 4.5%.
TODAY’s MATCH: MIA-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) PHILADELPHIA (85-70) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (71-84)
Trend: PHI is 48-11 (+27.11 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-161 at NYM)
(905) WASHINGTON (73-82) at (906) ST LOUIS (75-80)
Trend: WSH is 48-29 (+11.37 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at STL)
Trend: WSH is 10-29 (-13.68 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+108 at STL)
(911) BOSTON (84-71) at (912) TAMPA BAY (94-60)
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 8-18 (-13.27 units) in his last 26 day game starts
Trend: TB is 54-26 (+15.99 units) in home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-157 vs BOS)
(915) DETROIT (73-82) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (79-76)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7 (+9.35 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CWS (o/u at 8)
(917) TORONTO (76-79) at (918) TEXAS (78-77)
Trend: TEX is 20-8 (+6.47 units) in the last 28 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-185 vs TOR)
(919) MINNESOTA (72-83) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-95)
Trend: Over the total is 47-24-6 (+20.60 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAA (o/u at 8)
(921) KANSAS CITY (67-88) at (922) PITTSBURGH (78-77)
Trend: Over the total is 47-28-2 (+16.20 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-PIT (o/u at 8.5)
(925) SEATTLE (72-83) at (926) COLORADO (57-98)
Trend: SEA is 29-51 (-23.25 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at COL)
(927) NEW YORK-AL (89-65) at (928) ARIZONA (81-74)
Trend: NYY is 9-2 (+6.48 units) in road day games with starter Will Warren since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-101 at AZ)
(929) MILWAUKEE (97-58) at (930) BALTIMORE (75-80)
Trend: BAL is 19-7 (+13.09 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+169 vs MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #31: Athletics at Cleveland, Fri 9/18-Sun 9/20
Trend: CLEVELAND is on a 25-6 (80.6%, +17.56 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022
– The ROI on this trend is 56.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-248 vs ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, COLORADO, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, September 22)
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