AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: PHI is 23-2 (+19.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (-149 vs SF)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 411-355 record for +53.10 units and an ROI of 6.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-136 at MIN)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN STRENGTH RATINGS: ATHLETICS -126 vs KC (projections have line at ATH -151)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 62-42 start for +4.72 units and an ROI of +4.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-219 vs STL), NY METS (-207 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs AZ)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 15-27 for -15.05 units and an ROI of -35.8%.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 2 (+123 at PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 61-37 start for +4.28 units and an ROI of +4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (+123 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (-126 vs AZ), TORONTO (-136 at MIN)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 30-36 for +9.60 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+169 at NYM), COLORADO (+135 at CIN)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 13-6 for -1.4 units. Over the last two weeks, this angle has lost -6.78 units and is trending normally again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-219 vs STL), NY METS (-207 vs WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 58-67 for -2.81 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (+123 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO GAME 2 (+123 at PHI)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 11-20 for -8.31 units and an ROI of -26.8%.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+179 at PIT)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 19-23 for -11.96 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-219 vs STL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 422-442 but for +33.35 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-219 vs STL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 365-401 but for +97.45 units and an ROI of 12.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+109 at ATL), COLORADO (+135 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+169 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+179 at PIT)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-175 for -36.35 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+113 vs TOR)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of –180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 161-64 for +17.29 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-219 vs STL), NY METS (-207 vs WSH)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 411-355 record for +53.10 units and an ROI of 6.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-136 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 646-756 record but for +17.33 units and an ROI of 1.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+109 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (+104 at ATH)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 439-421 (51%) for +20.37 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-163 vs COL), NY METS (-207 vs WSH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2032-2595 (43.9%) for -262.74 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (+123 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+104 at ATH)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4111-3572 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -518.82 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-122 vs HOU), PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (-149 vs SF), ATHLETICS (-126 vs KC)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 486-549 SU but for +75.47 units (ROI: 7.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON GAME 1 (+102 at BAL), SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (+123 at PHI), DETROIT (+109 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (+104 at ATH)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATHLETICS -126 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SF-PHI GAME 2 OVER 7 (+1.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.8), COL-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(953) COLORADO (14-17) at (954) CINCINNATI (19-11)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3 (+6.70 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-CIN (o/u at 9)

(957) WASHINGTON (14-17) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (10-20)
Trend: OVER the total is 10-3-2 (+6.79 units) when Freddy Peralta’s teams are -180 favorites or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: OVER the total is 10-3-2 (+6.70 units) in WSH day games this season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-NYM (o/u at 7.5)

(959) ARIZONA (16-13) at (960) MILWAUKEE (15-14)
Trend: Michael Soroka’s teams are 4-13 (-9.82 units) in the -120 to +115 line range in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+104 at MIL)

(961) HOUSTON (11-19) at (962) BALTIMORE (14-15)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 27-15 (+5.76 units) when he starts in day games vs opponents with a losing record in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-122 vs HOU)

(963) KANSAS CITY (12-18) at (964) ATHLETICS (16-14)
Trend: KC is 1-9 (-7.74 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+104 at ATH)

(965) TORONTO (14-16) at (966) MINNESOTA (13-18)
Trend: MIN is 10-4 (+7.97 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+113 vs TOR)

(967) DETROIT (15-16) at (968) ATLANTA (22-9)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 8-2 (+6.35 units) on the road when he starts against NL opponents with a > 55% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: DET is 10-3 (+6.20 units) in DAY games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+109 at ATL)

(971) SAN FRANCISCO (13-16) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (10-19)  (DH Game #1)
Trend: PHI is 23-2 (+19.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (-149 vs SF)

Series #7: San Francisco at Philadelphia, Tue 4/28-Thu 4/30
Trend: Home teams are on a 22-6 (78.6%, +16.08 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 57.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1 (-149 vs SF) and PHILADELPHIA GAME 2 (-149 vs SF)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): HOUSTON GAME 1, SAN FRANCISCO GAME 2

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA GAME 1, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, MILWAUKEE

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

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