Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 30-12 (+19.99 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-106 at NYM)
* Since the start of the 2023 regular season, teams on two-game winning streaks but having worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 804-891 for -91.41 units (ROI: -5.4 %).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+154 at MIL)
Trend: Over the total is 7-0 (+7.00 units) when starter Shane Baz faces NYY in his career (he has a 7.00 ERA in these seven appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-BAL (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, a solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a 129-181 start for -13.95 after losing about 24 units over the nine weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season; its usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+172 vs. LAD), ATHLETICS (+142 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+170 at CLE), WASHINGTON (+138 at TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 264-311 for -13.26 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 73-64, +20.93 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+195 at PHI), DETROIT (+131 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 213-136 for +51.67 units, an ROI of +14.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-112 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-106 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-109 at BAL), ATLANTA (-119 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 156-195 start for -31.71 units (ROI -9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 65-90 for -24.69 units and a solid ROI of -15.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – SEATTLE (+154 at MIL)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-210 vs. MIA), NY METS (-101 vs. SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Last year, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 130-147 for +1.86 units. However, it has lost -11.44 units over the last month and a half.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+138 at TEX)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 448-389 but for -100.30 units and an ROI of -12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-165 vs. SEA), TEXAS (-148 vs. WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,198-2,075 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.73 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-165 vs. AZ), KANSAS CITY (-153 vs. ATH), LA DODGERS (-186 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,258-2,834 (44.3%) for -262.57 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+153 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (-106 at NYM), ATLANTA (-119 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+151 at HOU)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 671-565 (54.3%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.30 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-101 vs. SD)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams that hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 69-48-5 (59%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 39-21 Over streak in the last 60).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYY-BAL (o/u at 8.5), TOR-TB (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-281 SU but for +39.37 units (ROI: 7.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+173 vs. LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 528-505 for +32.74 units, good for +3.2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +157 (+31 diff), COLORADO +172 (+22), CINCINNATI +105 (+18), BALTIMORE +102 (+17), MINNESOTA +111 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TAMPA BAY -129 (+23 diff), SAN DIEGO -106 (+18), HOUSTON -159 (+13),
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 RUN edge on either the Over or Under. On Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 28-11 for +15.1 units and an ROI of 38.7%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SD-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (64-62) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (68-58)
Trend: PHI is 45-12 (+20.17 units) as a home favorite of -162 or higher with starter Zach Wheeler since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-210 vs. MIA)
(953) ST LOUIS (64-62) at (954) CINCINNATI (60-65)
Trend: STL is 41-34 (+10.59 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-112 at CIN)
(955) SAN DIEGO (67-59) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (57-69)
Trend: Robbie Ray’s teams are 30-12 (+19.99 units) when he starts against NL opponents since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-106 at NYM)
Trend: Under the total is 22-12 (+8.95 units) when starter Robbie Ray is favored since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (75-51) at (958) COLORADO (50-75)
Trend: Over the total is 10-5 (+4.50 units) when starter Eric Lauer faces COL in his career (he has a 6.21 ERA in these 15 appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-COL (o/u at 11.5)
(959) NEW YORK-AL (69-55) at (960) BALTIMORE (61-64)
Trend: Over the total is 7-0 (+7.00 units) when starter Shane Baz faces NYY in his career (he has a 7.00 ERA in these seven appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-BAL (o/u at 8.5)
(961) TORONTO (61-65) at (962) TAMPA BAY (75-49)
Trend: TB is 53-41 (+25.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs. TOR)
(963) ATHLETICS (49-76) at (964) KANSAS CITY (52-74)
Trend: KC is 22-33 (-15.49 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-1.5 vs. ATH)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-76) at (966) HOUSTON (63-62)
Trend: HOU has a 9-1 record with starter Cristian Javier when facing LA Angels
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-162 vs. LAA)
(967) SAN FRANCISCO (51-73) at (968) CLEVELAND (60-65)
Trend: SF is 22-40 (-16.00 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+170 at CLE)
(969) DETROIT (61-64) at (970) PITTSBURGH (61-66)
Trend: Over the total is 42-21-1 (+18.90 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend: Over the total is 19-5 (+13.50 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PIT (o/u at 8)
(971) ARIZONA (66-60) at (972) BOSTON (67-58)
Trend: AZ is 20-10 (+12.03 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+153 at BOS)
(973) SEATTLE (59-66) at (974) MILWAUKEE (77-48)
Trend: SEA is 23-40 (-16.73 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at MIL)
(977) WASHINGTON (60-66) at (978) TEXAS (61-64)
Trend: WSH is 41-22 (+13.01 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at TEX)
(979) CHICAGO-AL (65-59) at (980) CHICAGO-NL (73-53)
Trend: Over the total is 47-33-1 (+10.70 units) when CWS is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-CHC (o/u at 9)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 20-26 (-21.73 units) when he starts at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs. CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-165 vs. AZ), MILWAUKEE (-165 vs. SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): WASHINGTON (+138 at TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-182 vs. SF), PITTSBURGH (-140 vs. DET), BOSTON (-165 vs. AZ), ATLANTA (-119 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (-165 vs. SEA), WASHINGTON (+138 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (-168 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-HOU (o/u at 9)
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 24)
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