Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Cincinnati is 5-15 (25%, -11.04 units) in the last 20 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -55.2%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+144 at PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 360-305 record for +51.90 units and an ROI of 7.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-125 at ATL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 168-114 for +45.24 units, and an ROI of 16%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-176 vs CIN)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 269-144 for +39.56 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +9.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-294 vs CWS), PITTSBURGH (-176 vs CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 109-203 for -32.94 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.6%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+103 vs MIA), WASHINGTON (+118 vs ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): PITTSBURGH (-176 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-294 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-143 at WSH)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 373-383, but for +45.56 units and a ROI of 6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+232 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 196-144 for +20.10 units and an ROI of 5.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-125 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 119-156 for -34.96 units and a ROI of -12.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+103 vs MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 360-305 record for +51.90 units and an ROI of 7.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-125 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 590-662 record, but for +50.98 units and a ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-143 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1884-2383 (44.2%) for -202.80 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (-143 at WSH), CINCINNATI (+144 at PIT)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3818-3346 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -515.82 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-294 vs CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next: tomorrow, August 8)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +232 (+70 diff), WASHINGTON +126 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIAMI -125 (+27 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-SEA UNDER 7.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) CINCINNATI (60-55) at (952) PITTSBURGH (49-66)
Trend: Under the total is 49-27-3 (+19.30 units) when CIN faces RH starters this season
Trend: Under the total is 52-25-3 (+13.50 units) when PIT faces RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 7)
(953) MIAMI (56-57) at (954) ATLANTA (47-66)
Trend: MIA is 1-8 (-9.41 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-125 at ATL)
(955) CHICAGO-AL (42-72) at (956) SEATTLE (62-53)
Trend: CWS is 18-40 (-12.21 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+232 at SEA)
(957) ATHLETICS (50-66) at (958) WASHINGTON (45-68)
Trend: Over the total is 14-7-2 (+6.30 units) when ATH faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-WSH (o/u at 9)
Trend: WSH has been terrible in day games this season (14-33 record, -18.30 units)
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+118 vs ATH)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/7-Sun 8/10
Trend: Cincinnati is 5-15 (25%, -11.04 units) in the last 20 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -55.2%
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+144 at PIT)
