Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 12-2 (+9.80 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DET (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 454-404 record for +43.83 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+101 at STL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 61-93 for -36.86 units and an ROI of -23.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at TOR)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 51-30 for -16.07 units, ROI -19.8%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-260 vs SD), DETROIT (-224 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 207-258 for -29.16 units. This ROI of -6.3% is much less than what we’ve come to expect, but it has gotten over 10 units back in the last few weeks.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+101 at STL)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 177-110 for +46.16 units, an ROI of +16.1%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-114 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 56-74 for -17.45 units and a solid ROI of -13.4%.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+182 at DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 102-114 for +2.10 units.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-106 vs TB)
MLB Post-All-Star-Break Trends/Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.
In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 169-165 for +43.38 units (ROI: 13%) since 2019.
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-106 vs TB)
TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series’ post ASB*)
* ARIZONA – 16-7-1 (69.6%) to the Under on the road since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-STL (o/u at 7.5)
* ATLANTA – 39-51 SU (-18.43 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-260 vs SD)
* TAMPA BAY – 11-19 SU (-8.80 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-114 at TOR)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 504-400 for +46.67 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+182 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 458-483 but for +28.24 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-106 vs TB)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 404-454 but for +89.97 units and an ROI of 10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+123 at CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 431-372 but for -93.47 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-122 vs AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 454-404 record for +43.83 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+101 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,162-2,046 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.40 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+123 at CLE), ARIZONA (+101 at STL)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-139 SU for -37.45 units (ROI: -20.6%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+210 at ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 423-411 for +11.78 units, good for 1.4% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO +210 (+40 diff), MINNESOTA +123 (+22), KANSAS CITY +182 (+20), TORONTO -106 (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ST LOUIS -122 (+13 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (50-52) at (952) ATLANTA (59-42)
Trend: SD is 22-16 (+6.49 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+210 at ATL)
(953) MINNESOTA (50-53) at (954) CLEVELAND (54-49)
Trend: Over the total is 33-16-3 (+15.40 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
(955) TAMPA BAY (59-42) at (956) TORONTO (46-56)
Trend: TB is 44-30 (+26.54 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at TOR)
(957) KANSAS CITY (43-60) at (958) DETROIT (48-54)
Trend: Under the total is 12-2 (+9.80 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(959) ARIZONA (53-49) at (960) ST LOUIS (52-49)
Trend: Under the total is 24-17-4 (+5.30 units) when AZ is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-STL (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 7/20-Thu 7/23
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 40-19 (67.8%, +21.51 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 36.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-224 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-260 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-122 vs AZ)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, July 24)
SPONSORED
🤖 Robert Ferringo Is Heating Up
Robert Ferringo is 80-42 (65%) on his highest-rated plays, producing +14,020 units.
Over the past three weeks alone, he’s up +8,435 units across MLB, WNBA and World Cup wagers.
