Today we have a much smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 5 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-145, 7.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Guardians (54-49) took the first two games, winning the opener 13-4 as +110 home dogs and then winning the second game 5-2 as -160 home favorites. Then the Twins (50-53) bounced back with a 10-6 win yesterday, coming through as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins hand the ball to righty Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.85 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -130 home favorite and Minnesota a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians at a short chalk price, steaming Cleveland up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 57% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the Vegas pros.
The Guardians are 28-20 (58%) with an 18% ROI off a loss, the 3rd most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Williams has posted a 3.45 ERA at home compared to a 4.55 ERA on the road.
On the other hand, Bradley has posted a 4.50 ERA on the road compared to 3.14 at home.
The Guardians are 27-25 at home and 20-18 in day games. Conversely, the Twins are 24-28 on the road and 21-24 in day games.
5:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 7.5)
The Diamondbacks (53-49) just took two of three against the Athletics, dominating yesterday’s series finale 15-5 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (52-49) just dropped two of three against the Angels but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 1-0 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Diamondbacks start righty Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +110 road dog.
The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Cardinals at home. However, despite St. Louis receiving 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall slightly away from the Cardinals (-130 to -125) and toward the Diamondbacks (+110 to +105). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Snakes.
At Circa, Arizona is taking in 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the dog receiving line movement in their favor has gone 41-25 (62%) with a 32% ROI this season.
When receiving line movement in their favor, the Diamondbacks are 31-23 (57%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Pfaadt has pitched well as of late, allowing only 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched in three July starts (2.30 ERA). Arizona is 4-0 in his last four starts.
Meanwhile, McGreevy has posted a 3.34 ERA at night compared to 2.21 during the day. St. Louis is 3-7 in his last ten starts.
