Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-183 (67%) for +54.44 units and an ROI of 9.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs TOR), NY YANKEES (-186 vs LAA)
* Since the start of the 2023 regular season, worse SM bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks have a record of 297-331 for -34.97 units (ROI: 5.6%).
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+113 vs BOS)
* San Diego momentum after divisional series vs. COL: The Padres are 23-12 (65.7%) +12.22 units, ROI: 34.9% in follow-up game
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+100 vs SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 32-17 start for +6.57 units and an ROI of +13.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs KC), BOSTON (-136 at MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 38-20 start for +8.07 units and an ROI of 13.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs KC), ATLANTA (-163 vs MIA), BOSTON (-136 at MIN), TEXAS (-115 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 16-20 for +5.88 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs TB), MINNESOTA (+113 vs BOS), COLORADO (+159 at HOU)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 14-9 but for -8.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-207 vs NYM)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-5 start for -3.19 units. The ROI on that is -22.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 vs NYM)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a conservative start, 25-30 for -1.68 units.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 4-13 for -8.77 units and an ROI -51.6%.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+113 vs BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 14-11 for +6.84 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+100 vs CLE), NY METS (+169 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 10-14 for -10.59 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs TOR)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 441-360 for +25.60 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs KC), TAMPA BAY (-143 at CWS), SAN DIEGO (+100 vs SEA), SEATTLE (-120 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 214-161 for +17.52 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-120 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 135-172 for -34.23 units and an ROI of -11.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+100 vs SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 402-345 record for +54.48 units and an ROI of 7.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-120 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 434-418 (50.9%) for +19.03 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-105 vs TEX)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,005-1,894 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.18 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,010-2,561 (44%) for -251.38 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TORONTO, COLORADO, NY METS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,062-3,525 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.31 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 603-498 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +31.02 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-194 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-183 (67%) for +54.44 units and an ROI of 9.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-131 vs TOR), NY YANKEES (-186 vs LAA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 331-299 (52.5%) for +17.40 units and an ROI of 2.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-163 vs MIA)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams that won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 84-127 SU (-22.25 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs TB)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allowing >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 180-212 SU record for +40.04 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+153 at PIT)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 68-40 SU for +13.39 units (ROI: 12.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-136 at MIN)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 458-520 SU but for +69.52 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 160-170 SU for +39.87 units in last 330 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+102 at MIL), KANSAS CITY (+100 at DET), COLORADO (+159 at HOU), ARIZONA (+139 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+153 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+153 at NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 70-141 skid (-38.88 units, ROI: -18.4%).
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-194 vs COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 93-174 (-59.96 units, ROI: -22.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-194 vs COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 272-290 run (+4.69 units, ROI: 0.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs TOR), NY METS (+169 at LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +153 (+18 diff), ARIZONA +139 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -120 (+25 diff), TAMPA BAY -143 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-MIL OVER 7 (+0.7), TB-CWS OVER 8 (+0.5), COL-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-1.1), AZ-BAL UNDER 9 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) WASHINGTON (7-9) at (954) PITTSBURGH (10-6)
Trend: PIT is 13-22 (-8.66 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-186 vs. WSH)
(955) SAN FRANCISCO (6-10) at (956) CINCINNATI (9-7)
Trend: SF is 8-1 (+9.00 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 21-7 (+15.65 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 at CIN)
Trend: Brady Singer is 11-2 (+10.31 units) in his last 13 starts vs. NL West teams
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-115 vs. SF)
(973) TORONTO (6-9) at (974) MILWAUKEE (8-7)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-13 (-3.49 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
— Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-CIN
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 18-17 (51.4%) +6.45 units, ROI: 18.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+159 at HOU)
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 23-12 (65.7%) +12.22 units, ROI: 34.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+100 vs. SEA)
