MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
Because I spent most of my time last week getting all of my materials ready for the NFL Preseason, I held off on providing an update to our MLB Bullpen Systems. However, since my last update two weeks ago, SO MUCH has happened, nothing bigger than the reintroduction of Dime Lines for baseball betting from DraftKings and FanDuel. Hopefully, all of you have been responsible bettors and have always shopped for the best lines you can find, but when the most mainstream providers in the country make a move like this, it gives me great hope that we won’t be going back to the 20-cent (and often even worse) pricing that we had grown used to. I can’t state enough how big of a boon this is to everyday high-volume game bettors like myself, and even though I’m diligent about my line shopping, the systems I track in articles like this were based on the DraftKings line feed. That said, I have made all the necessary adjustments to incoming final line spreads, and they will be accounted for going forward in the systems. These changes also reflect the daily MLB simulation scores I project, as they are built specifically on the price I expect bettors to pay for either side. Again, the impact here is massive and thus the focus of this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update. Of course, with a two-week span between this piece and our last one, I will also be sharing some other bullpen-related observations that I have witnessed.
As excited as I am about the pricing change for bettors, I am equally as excited to report that most of our MLB Bullpen Systems continued their tremendous rolls over the last couple of weeks. While not a huge total, the line changes helped us maintain our winning streak for the EASIEST system, which gained +0.98 units. However, the rest of the angles that we have been tracking and qualifying for you did far better. Take a look at the highlights:
– All three of our FADE Correlation systems performed remarkably, and all three are at -8.4% or less for the teams qualifying. Of course, we love seeing bigger negative numbers for these systems because we are FADING the teams that meet the criteria. All three of these angles point out weak spots for teams, and fading weak spots can often be a better strategy than following strength.
– Another huge FADE system angle, suggesting to go against big favorites that aren’t winning at least 19% of their games more than their opponents, also continued to thrive. The teams meeting the criteria lost -9.84 units over the last couple of weeks, and those playing against them won handsomely.
– Last but certainly not least, Better Bullpen Underdogs, probably my favorite baseball betting system of all-time, has recovered nicely over the past few weeks to get back into respectable territory. Since the ASB, these teams have produced +23.93 units. We are getting very close to the profitability line, and as I indicated a couple of weeks ago, I fully expect to end up in positive territory by the time we reach October and hopefully much sooner.
It has been a huge run out of the All-Star Break for almost every one of the systems we provide for you on a daily basis in our MLB Analytics Reports. I trust that if you are reading this piece, you are also using those daily gold mines to your advantage.
The last thing I wanted to point out is a few observations I have made about bullpens over the last couple of weeks.
First, it seems I may have jinxed the Red Sox a couple of weeks ago when I glazed over how much they had turned their season around, led of course by their bullpen. Since then, they have essentially imploded. Both overall and out of the bullpen. Although they remain at the top of my updated bullpen rankings, you will also find them at #2 on the list of teams that suffered the biggest drop over the last two weeks. Taking a closer look at what’s happened recently, or since August 8th, Boston has gone 2-7, while its bullpen has gone 29-2/3 innings. The ERA in that span is 4.55 with an accompanying WHIP of 1.08. Now, while neither of these numbers is that ugly, and several teams have worse season-long ERAs, they are a huge decline from what led the team to a torrid June and July surge.
Second, the team that was #1 on my bullpen rankings for much of the early part of the season is finally making its move again. That team is, of course, the Padres, who have climbed out of a 50-53 hole to go 17-5 in their last 22 games and put themselves back into wildcard position. In those 22 games, San Diego boasts a bullpen ERA of around 2.8. And now, having strengthened their starting rotation by adding Robbie Ray and Casey Mize at the trade deadline, this is looking like a team that most of the National League is going to want to avoid the rest of the way.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through about 125 games of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slower start but has been gaining steam over the last month and a half. The season-long record is 850-753 in all for -60.59 units, and an ROI of -3.8%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game, which for this season to date is about -7.25%. That is an “advantage” of almost 3.5% simply by taking the team with a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating every game. Furthermore, we are winning 53% of our games. That said, betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless, even with the new dime lines factored in. It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point, I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as valuable as, or more valuable than, systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 52-48 for -11.79 units for an ROI of -11.8%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 73-115 for -46.96 units and an ROI of -24.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slower 230-179 start for -27.43 units and an ROI of -6.7%. This one has been a disappointment.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 129-179 start for -11.95 after losing about 22 units over the nine weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 195-149 for +7.69 units and an ROI of +2.2%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 69-43 for -26.19 units, ROI -23.4%!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 39-21 but for -12.8 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 31-21 start for -17.8 units, and an ROI of -34.2%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 264-308 for -10.26 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 73-61, +23.93 units.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 211-135 for +50.79 units, an ROI of +14.7%. We are currently tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily, and it has added over +20 units since we have.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the ’23-‘25 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, a R.O.I. of -4.4%. For ‘26, they are off to a 156-195 start for -31.71 units (ROI -9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 63-89 for -25.69 units and a solid ROI of -16.9%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 129-147 for +0.64 units. However, it has lost -12.66 units over the last month and a half.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 152-128 for -19.9 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 96-92 for -16.22 units. This angle also has gained solid momentum around the break, however.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 8/16)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 3
2. NY YANKEES: 3.15
3. MILWAUKEE: 3.5
4. ATLANTA: 3.52
5. SAN DIEGO: 3.59
6. NY METS: 3.74
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.72
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.25
28. COLORADO: 4.86
27. WASHINGTON: 4.84
26. MINNESOTA: 4.78
25. CINCINNATI: 4.65
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. BOSTON: 1.14
2. TAMPA BAY: 1.2
3. ATLANTA: 1.2
4. NY YANKEES: 1.2
5. ARIZONA: 1.24
6. MIAMI: 1.24
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.55
29. ATHLETICS: 1.51
28. MINNESOTA: 1.51
27. COLORADO: 1.48
26. WASHINGTON: 1.44
25. CINCINNATI: 1.44
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.1
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.98
3. LA ANGELS: 9.82
4. LA DODGERS: 9.72
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.7
6. MIAMI: 9.35
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.37
29. COLORADO: 7.62
28. TEXAS: 7.63
27. KANSAS CITY: 7.68
26. ARIZONA: 7.7
25. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.71
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. ARIZONA: 0.81
2. NY YANKEES: 0.97
3. MILWAUKEE: 1.05
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.07
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.08
6. NY METS: 1.09
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.69
29. COLORADO: 1.6
28. CINCINNATI: 1.56
27. MINNESOTA: 1.54
26. TAMPA BAY: 1.52
25. SEATTLE: 1.52
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday (8/3):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. PITTSBURGH: +10 points
2. COLORADO: +7
3. NY METS: +5
3. SAN DIEGO: +5
3. MILWAUKEE: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: -13 points
2. BOSTON: -11
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -10
3. SAN FRANCISCO: -10
5. CINCINNATI: -8
6. ATLANTA: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/17)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. BOSTON: 30
2. TAMPA BAY: 27
3. MILWAUKEE: 26
4. SAN DIEGO: 25
5. HOUSTON: 24
6. NY YANKEES: 22
7. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 18
8. NY METS: 16
9. ATLANTA: 10
10. LA ANGELS: 10
11. LA DODGERS: 9
12. MIAMI: 8
13. CHICAGO CUBS: 7
14. ARIZONA: 7
15. TORONTO: 7
16. DETROIT: 5
17. PITTSBURGH: 4
18. BALTIMORE: 3
19. MINNESOTA: 2
20. PHILADELPHIA: 1
21. SEATTLE: 0
22. CLEVELAND: -1
23. SAN FRANCISCO: -5
24. ST LOUIS: -6
25. CINCINNATI: -8
26. TEXAS: -11
27. COLORADO: -11
28. WASHINGTON: -12
29. KANSAS CITY: -22
30. ATHLETICS: -27
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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